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Syntheses

Publications

Wildfire imagery reduces risk information-seeking among homeowners as property wildfire risk increases
Hilary Byerly Flint et al.

Collective action for managing wildfire risk across boundaries in forest and range landscapes: lessons from case studies in the western United States
Heidi Huber-Stearns et al.

Using Structure Location Data to Map the Wildland–Urban Interface in Montana, USA
Alexander R. Ketchpaw et al.

Targeted grazing and mechanical thinning enhance forest stand resilience under a narrow range of wildfire scenarios
Victoria M. Donovan et al.
Fire ecology for the 21st century: conserving biodiversity in the age of megafire
Dale G. Nimmo et al.

The changing risk and burden of wildfire in the United States
Marshall Burke et al.
High-severity wildfire potential – associating meteorology, climate, resource demand and wildfire activity with preparedness levels
Alison Cullen et al.
Patterns of wildfire risk in the United States from systematic operational risk assessments: how risk is characterised by land managers
Erin Noonan-Wright et al.
Operationalising homeowner wildfire risk mitigation in fire-prone areas
Hugh D. Walpole et al.

The Path to Strategic Wildland Fire Management Planning
Richard D. Stratton
Resistance and representation in a wildland-urban interface fuels treatment conflict: the case of the Forsythe II project in the Arapaho-Roosevelt National Forest
Hannah Brenkert-Smith et al.
Assessing preferences for wildfire prevention policies in Spain
Maria Alló et al.
Engineering A Safer Crew Protection System
Andrew Webb et al.
Fostering collective action to reduce wildfire risk across property boundaries in the American West
Susan Charnley et al.
Reducing wooden structure and wildland-urban interface fire disaster risk through dynamic risk assessment and management
Torgrim Log et al.
Evaluating wildland fire liability standards – does regulation incentivise good management?
Christopher J. Lauer et al.
Support for regulatory and voluntary approaches to wildfire adaptation among unincorporated wildland-urban interface communities
Catrin Edgeley et al.
Wildfires in the wildland-urban interface: key concepts and evaluation methodologies
A. Bento-Gonçalves et al.
If you love it, let it go: the role of home attachment in wildfire evacuation decisions
Hugh D. Walpole et al.
Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values
Brett Cirulis et al.
Awareness and adoption of FireSmart Canada: barriers and incentives
Mohamed Ergibi et al.

Exposure Complexity and Community Capacity to Manage Wildfire Risk: A Coupled Biophysical and Social Analysis of 60 Communities in the Western United States
Max W. Nielsen-Pincus et al.
Tradeoffs between US national forest harvest targets and fuel management to reduce wildfire transmission to the wildland urban interface
Alan A. Ager et al.
Determinants of perceived risk and liability concerns associated with prescribed burning in the United States
Omkar Joshi et al.
We’re not doing enough prescribed fire in the western United States to mitigate wildfire risk
Crystal A. Kolden
Wildfire exposure to the wildland urban interface in the western US
Alan A. Ager et al.
Impacts of wildland fire effects on resources and assets through expert elicitation to support fire response decisions
Colin B. McFayden et al.
Risk management and analytics in wildfire response
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Engaging the fire before it starts: A case study from the 2017 Pinal Fire (Arizona)
Christopher D. O'Connor et al.
Designing operationally relevant daily large fire containment strategies using risk assessment results
Yu Wei et al.
Interactions between Resident Risk Perceptions and Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Evidence from Simultaneous Equations Modeling
James R. Meldrum et al.
A social-ecological network approach for understanding wildfire risk governance
Matthew Hamilton et al.
Burn probability simulation and subsequent wildland fire activity in Alberta, Canada – Implications for risk assessment and strategic planning
Jennifer L. Beverly et al.
Modelling the fire propagation from the fuel bed to the lower canopy of ornamental species used in wildland–urban interfaces
L. Terrei et al.
Risk factor as a strategy to validate the prioritization of areas for wildfire protection
José G. Flores Garnica et al.
Beyond ICS: how should we govern complex disasters in the United States?
Branda Nowell et al.
Fine scale assessment of cross boundary wildfire events in the Western United States
Palaiologos Palaiologou et al.
Fine-scale assessment of cross-boundary wildfire events in the western United States
Palaiologos Palaiologou et al.

Wildfire risk mitigation: Local solutions to a national problem
Jonathan Bruno
Guidelines for risk management in forest planning — what is risk and when is risk management useful?
Kyle Eyvindson et al.
Responding to risky neighbors: Testing for spatial spillover effects for defensible space in a fire-prone WUI community
Travis Warziniack et al.
Values of the public at risk of wildfire and its management
Kathryn J. Williams et al.

Should I stay or should I go now? Or should I wait and see? Influences on wildfire evacuation decisions
Sarah M. McCaffrey et al.
Interacting effects of topography, vegetation, human activities and wildland-urban interfaces on wildfire ignition risk
María Calviño-Cancela et al.
Federal fire managers' perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources
Crystal S. Stonesifer et al.
Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes
Christine Olsen et al.
Whither the paradigm shift? Large wildland fires and the wildfire paradox offer opportunities for a new paradigm of ecological fire management
Timothy Ingalsbee
Characterising resource use and potential inefficiencies during large-fire suppression in the western US
Hari Katuwal et al.
Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis (Chapter 2)
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Uncertainty in natural hazards, modeling and decision support: An introduction to this volume [Chapter 1]
Karen L. Riley et al.
Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin
William Matt Jolly et al.
The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources
Uncertainty in natural hazards: modeling and decision support (Introduction)
Karen L. Riley et al.

Is seeing believing? Perceptions of wildfire risk over time
Patricia A. Champ et al.
Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology
A. Paige Fischer et al.
Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Examining alternative fuel management strategies and the relative contribution of National Forest System land to wildfire risk to adjacent homes - a pilot assessment on the Sierra National Forest, California, USA
Joe H. Scott et al.

Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents and wildfire professionals
James R. Meldrum et al.
Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management
Michael S. Hand et al.
Emerging concepts in wildfire risk assessment and management
Joe H. Scott et al.

Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA
Jessica R. Haas et al.
Risk savvy: how to make good decisions
Gerd Gigerenzer
Examining fire-prone landscapes as coupled human and natural systems
Thomas A. Spies et al.
Developing an aviation exposure index to inform risk-based fire management decisions
Crystal S. Stonesifer et al.

Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs
Kevin D. Hyde et al.
Analyzing the transmission of wildfire exposure on a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA
Alan A. Ager et al.
Forest fire management to avoid unintended consequences: a case study of Portugal using system dynamics
Ross D. Collins et al.
Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics
Matthew P. Thompson
A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests
Alan A. Ager et al.
A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into wildland urban interface risk assessments within the United States
Jessica R. Haas et al.
Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers
Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer et al.
How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface
David E. Calkin et al.
Simulating effects of land use policies on extent of the wildland urban interface and wildfire risk in Flathead County, Montana
Travis B. Paveglio et al.

Wildland Fire Management Decision Making
Tom Zimmerman
Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure
Joe H. Scott et al.
Quantifying the threat of unsuppressed wildfires reaching the adjacent wildland-urban interface on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA
Joe H. Scott et al.

A real-time risk assessment tool supporting wildland fire decisionmaking
David E. Calkin et al.
Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
The Wildland Fire Decision Support System: Integrating science, technology, and fire management
Morgan Pence et al.
Primer on risk analysis: decision making under uncertainty
Charles Yoe
Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers
Robyn S. Wilson et al.
The exposure index: developing firefighter safety performance measures
David E. Calkin et al.
A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States
Mark A. Finney et al.
Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review
Matthew P. Thompson et al.

Risk management - principles and guidelines
Geneva Switzerland International organization for standardization
A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: case study of wildland fire management in the USA
Randall J. F. Bruins et al.
Science and decisions: advancing risk assessment
National Research Council

The next catastrophe: reducing our vulnerabilities to natural, industrial, and terrorist disasters
Charles Perrow
Managing the unexpected: resilient performance in an age of uncertainty
Karl E. Weick et al.

Predicting risks of uncharacteristic wildfires: application of the risk assessment process
Anne Fairbrother et al.
Shared mindfulness in cockpit crisis situations
Janice L. Krieger
The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire
Mark A. Finney
Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology
Jeffrey G. Borchers
Wildland fire hazard and risk: problems, definitions and context
Colin C. Hardy

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk
Haiganoush K. Preisler et al.
Surviving the age of risk: a call for ethical management
Lance J. Ewing et al.
A new accident model for engineering safer systems
Nancy Leveson

Inviting disaster: lessons from the edge of technology
James R. Chiles
Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality
Paul Slovic et al.

Lessons from Longford: the Esso Gas Plant explosion
Andrew Hopkins

Normal accidents: living with high-risk technologies
Charles Perrow
Managing major hazards: the lessons of the Moura Mine disaster
Andrew Hopkins
Risk management for ecological stewardship
D.A. Cleaves et al.

Organizational learning activities in high-hazard industries: the logics underlying self-analysis
John S. Carroll

Managing environmental uncertainty with legitimate authority: a comparative analysis of the Mann Gulch and Storm King Mountain Fires
G. Stoney Alder
Managing the risks of organizational accidents
James Reason
Man-made disasters
Barry A. Turner et al.

Learning from mistakes is easier said than done: group and organizational influences on the detection and correction of human error
Amy Edmondson

Beyond aviation human factors: safety in high technology systems
Daniel E. Maurino et al.

Causes of disaster: sloppy management
Barry Turner

Preventing chaos in a crisis: strategies for prevention, control and damage limitation
Patrick Lagadec
Organizational communication imperatives: lessons of the space program
Phillip K. Tompkins

On risk communication as interorganizational control: the case of the aviation safety reporting system
Phillip K. Tompkins
Overcoming organizational defenses: facilitating organizational learning
Chris Argyris
Conservatism, efficiency, and the value of life
Douglas MacLean et al.
Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis
M. Granger Morgan et al.
The history and politics of disaster management in the United States
Roy S. Popkin
Military misfortunes: the anatomy of failure in war
Eliot A. Cohen et al.

Decision traps: the ten barriers to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them
J. Edward Russo et al.

Searching for safety
Aaron Wildavsky

Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases

Risk and culture: an essay on the selection of technological and environmental dangers
Mary Douglas et al.

Threat rigidity effects in organizational behavior: a multilevel analysis
Barry Staw et al.