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Risk Management of Wildland Fire

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Upcoming Events

Colorado Wildland Fire Conference 2020
September 30, 2020 to October 1, 2020
V International Congress on Risks
October 18, 2020 to October 22, 2020

Webinars/Videos

Montana Wildfire Risk Assessment
Apr 28, 2020
Matt Hall, Joe H. Scott, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
Boundary-Spanning for Collective Action: Managing Wildfire Risk in the West
Feb 25, 2020
Emily Jane Davis, Tony S. Cheng, Darren McAvoy
Why use FSPro? Interview with Mark Finney
Nov 29, 2017
Mark A. Finney
Developing an Effective Mitigation Strategy
Jul 28, 2017
Brett Holt, Patty Perry, Greg Adams
Occupy wildfires: the story of the 1%
May 25, 2016
Jessica R. Haas
Wildfire risk assessment
Jun 3, 2015
Kevin Martin, Stephen Gage, David N. Seesholtz

Research Briefs

Syntheses

2011 Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin

Publications/Reports

2020 Reducing wooden structure and wildland-urban interface fire disaster risk through dynamic risk assessment and management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Torgrim Log, Vigdis Vandvik, Liv G. Velle, Maria-Monika Metallinou
2020 If you love it, let it go: the role of home attachment in wildfire evacuation decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Hugh D. Walpole, Robyn S. Wilson, Sarah M. McCaffrey
2020 Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Brett Cirulis, Hamish G. Clarke, Matthias M. Boer, Trent D. Penman, Owen F. Price, Ross A. Bradstock
2020 Support for regulatory and voluntary approaches to wildfire adaptation among unincorporated wildland-urban interface communities
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Catrin Edgeley, Travis B. Paveglio, Daniel R. Williams
2020 The Path to Strategic Wildland Fire Management Planning
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Richard D. Stratton
2020 Fostering collective action to reduce wildfire risk across property boundaries in the American West
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Susan Charnley, Erin C. Kelly, A. Paige Fischer
2020 Wildfires in the wildland-urban interface: key concepts and evaluation methodologies
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
A. Bento-Gonçalves, A. Vieira
2019 Cross-boundary wildfire and community exposure: A framework and application in the western U.S.
Technical Report or White Paper
Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Rachel M. Houtman, Chris Ringo, Cody Evers
2019 Living with wildfire in Archeluta County, Colorado: 2015 data report
Technical Report or White Paper
James R. Meldrum, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Pamela Wilson, Patricia A. Champ, Christopher M. Barth, Angela Boag
2019 Interactions between Resident Risk Perceptions and Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Evidence from Simultaneous Equations Modeling
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James R. Meldrum, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Patricia A. Champ, Jamie Gomez, Lilia C. Falk, Christopher M. Barth
2019 Fine scale assessment of cross boundary wildfire events in the Western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle A. Day, Haiganoush K. Preisler
2019 Wildfire exposure to the wildland urban interface in the western US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Chris Ringo, Karen C. Short
2019 A social-ecological network approach for understanding wildfire risk governance
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew Hamilton, A. Paige Fischer, Alan A. Ager
2019 Interagency Standards for Fire and Fire Aviation Operations
Technical Report or White Paper
Interagency Standards for Fire and Fire Aviation Operations Group
2019 Fine-scale assessment of cross-boundary wildfire events in the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle A. Day, Haiganoush K. Preisler
2019 Impacts of wildland fire effects on resources and assets through expert elicitation to support fire response decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Colin B. McFayden, Den Boychuk, Douglas G. Woolford, Melanie J. Wheatley, Lynn Johnston
2019 Modelling the fire propagation from the fuel bed to the lower canopy of ornamental species used in wildland–urban interfaces
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
L. Terrei, Aymeric Lamorlette, Anne Ganteaume
2019 Tradeoffs between US national forest harvest targets and fuel management to reduce wildfire transmission to the wildland urban interface
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Rachel M. Houtman, Michelle A. Day, Chris Ringo, Palaiologos Palaiologou
2019 Engaging the fire before it starts: A case study from the 2017 Pinal Fire (Arizona)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher D. O'Connor, David E. Calkin
2019 Risk management and analytics in wildfire response
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Yu Wei, David E. Calkin, Christopher D. O'Connor, Christopher J. Dunn, Nathaniel M. Anderson, John S. Hogland
2019 Risk factor as a strategy to validate the prioritization of areas for wildfire protection
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
José G. Flores Garnica, Alejandra Macías, Uri D. Casillas
2019 Determinants of perceived risk and liability concerns associated with prescribed burning in the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Omkar Joshi, Neelam C. Poudyal, John R. Weir, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf, Thomas O. Ochuodho
2019 Designing operationally relevant daily large fire containment strategies using risk assessment results
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Yu Wei, Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Christopher D. O'Connor, Christopher J. Dunn
2019 Beyond ICS: how should we govern complex disasters in the United States?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Branda Nowell, Toddi A. Steelman
2018 Guidelines for risk management in forest planning — what is risk and when is risk management useful?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Kyle Eyvindson, Annika Kangas
2018 Values of the public at risk of wildfire and its management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Kathryn J. Williams, Rebecca M. Ford, Andrea Rawluk
2018 Wildfire risk mitigation: Local solutions to a national problem
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jonathan Bruno
2018 Responding to risky neighbors: Testing for spatial spillover effects for defensible space in a fire-prone WUI community
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Travis Warziniack, Patricia A. Champ, James R. Meldrum, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Christopher M. Barth, Lilia C. Falk
2017 Should I stay or should I go now? Or should I wait and see? Influences on wildfire evacuation decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sarah M. McCaffrey, Robyn S. Wilson, Avishek Konar
2017 Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christine Olsen, Jeffrey D. Kline, Alan A. Ager, Keith A. Olsen, Karen C. Short
2017 Uncertainty in natural hazards, modeling and decision support: An introduction to this volume [Chapter 1]
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karen L. Riley, Matthew P. Thompson, Peter Webley, Kevin D. Hyde
2017 Interacting effects of topography, vegetation, human activities and wildland-urban interfaces on wildfire ignition risk
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
María Calviño-Cancela, María L. Chas-Amil, Eduardo D. García-Martínez, Julia Touza
2017 Federal fire managers' perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Crystal S. Stonesifer, David E. Calkin, Michael S. Hand
2017 Characterising resource use and potential inefficiencies during large-fire suppression in the western US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Hari Katuwal, Christopher J. Dunn, David E. Calkin
2017 Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis (Chapter 2)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Jord J. Warmink
2017 Uncertainty in natural hazards: modeling and decision support (Introduction)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karen L. Riley, Matthew P. Thompson, Peter Webley, Kevin D. Hyde
2016 Is seeing believing? Perceptions of wildfire risk over time
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Patricia A. Champ, Hannah Brenkert-Smith
2016 Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Phil Bowden, April Brough, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Alan H. Taylor, Jessica R. Haas
2016 Risk terminology primer: basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community
Technical Report or White Paper
Matthew P. Thompson, Tom Zimmerman, Dan Mindar, Mary A. Taber
2016 Risk management: core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire
Technical Report or White Paper
Matthew P. Thompson, Donald G. MacGregor, David E. Calkin
2016 Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
A. Paige Fischer, Thomas A. Spies, Toddi A. Steelman, Cassandra Moseley, Bart R. Johnson, John D. Bailey, Alan A. Ager, Patrick S. Bourgeron, Susan Charnley, Brandon M. Collins, Jeffrey D. Kline, Jessica E. Leahy, Jeremy S. Littell, James D.A. Millington, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus, Christine Olsen, Travis B. Paveglio, Christopher I. Roos, David M. J. S. Bowman
2015 Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Michael S. Hand, Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2015 Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Jessica R. Haas, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Joe H. Scott, Paul G. Langowski, Elise M. Bowne, David E. Calkin
2015 Wildland fire management futures: Insights from a foresight panel - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Technical Report or White Paper
Robert L. Olson, David N. Bengston, Leif A. DeVaney, Trevor A.C. Thompson
2015 Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents and wildfire professionals
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James R. Meldrum, Patricia A. Champ, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Travis Warziniack, Christopher M. Barth, Lilia C. Falk
2015 Emerging concepts in wildfire risk assessment and management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joe H. Scott, Matthew P. Thompson
2014 Assessing the expected effects of wildfire on vegetation condition on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA
Technical Report or White Paper
Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Matthew P. Thompson
2014 Developing an aviation exposure index to inform risk-based fire management decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Crystal S. Stonesifer, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson, Jeffrey D. Kaiden
2014 Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jessica R. Haas, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2014 Examining fire-prone landscapes as coupled human and natural systems
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Thomas A. Spies, Eric M. White, Jeffrey D. Kline, A. Paige Fischer, Alan A. Ager, John D. Bailey, John P. Bolte, Jennifer Koch, Emily K. Platt, Christine Olsen, Derric B. Jacobs, Bruce A. Shindler, Michelle M. Steen-Adams, Roger B. Hammer
2014 Risk savvy: how to make good decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Gerd Gigerenzer
2014 Understanding stochastic wildfire simulation results
Technical Report or White Paper
Joe H. Scott
2013 A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Jeffrey D. Kaiden, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2013 Forest fire management to avoid unintended consequences: a case study of Portugal using system dynamics
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Ross D. Collins, Richard de Neufville, João Claro, Tiago M. Oliveira, Abílio Pereira Pacheco
2013 Simulating effects of land use policies on extent of the wildland urban interface and wildfire risk in Flathead County, Montana
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Travis B. Paveglio, Tony Prato, Michael Hardy
2013 A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into wildland urban interface risk assessments within the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jessica R. Haas, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2013 Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Kevin D. Hyde, Matthew B. Dickinson, Gil Bohrer, David E. Calkin, Louisa Evers, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Tessa Nicolet, Kevin C. Ryan, Christina Tague
2013 Decision making for wildfires: a guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level
Technical Report or White Paper
Mary A. Taber, Lisa M. Elenz, Paul G. Langowski
2013 A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management
Technical Report or White Paper
Joe H. Scott, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
2013 Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, David E. Calkin
2013 Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer, Michael S. Hand, David E. Calkin, Tyron J. Venn, Matthew P. Thompson
2013 Analyzing the transmission of wildfire exposure on a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Mark A. Finney, Ken W. Vance-Borland, Nicole M. Vaillant
2013 Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson
2013 Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Charles W. McHugh, Karen C. Short, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Mark A. Finney, David E. Calkin
2013 How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, Jack D. Cohen, Mark A. Finney, Matthew P. Thompson
2012 Quantifying the threat of unsuppressed wildfires reaching the adjacent wildland-urban interface on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Sean A. Parks, Carol Miller
2012 Wildland Fire Management Decision Making
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Tom Zimmerman
2012 Risk complexity and the wildland firefighter
Conference Proceedings
Ivan Pupulidy
2012 Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Kate Marcille
2011 A real-time risk assessment tool supporting wildland fire decisionmaking
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson, Mark A. Finney, Kevin D. Hyde
2011 Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Alan A. Ager
2011 The Wildland Fire Decision Support System: Integrating science, technology, and fire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Morgan Pence, Tom Zimmerman
2011 The exposure index: developing firefighter safety performance measures
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, John Phipps, Thomas P. Holmes, Jon D. Rieck, Matthew P. Thompson
2011 Primer on risk analysis: decision making under uncertainty
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Charles Yoe
2011 A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mark A. Finney, Charles W. McHugh, Isaac C. Grenfell, Karen L. Riley, Karen C. Short
2011 Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Mark A. Finney, Alan A. Ager, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2011 Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
2011 Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Robyn S. Wilson, Patricia L. Winter, Lynn A. Maguire, Timothy Ascher
2009 Science and decisions: advancing risk assessment
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
National Research Council
2009 A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: case study of wildland fire management in the USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Management or Planning Document
Randall J. F. Bruins, Wayne R. Munns, Stephen J. Botti, Steve Brink, David Cleland, Larry Kapustka, Danny C. Lee, Valerie Luzadis, Laura Falk McCarthy, Naureen Rana, Douglas B. Rideout, Matthew G. Rollins, Peter Woodbury, Mike Zupko
2009 Risk management - principles and guidelines
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Geneva Switzerland International organization for standardization
2007 Managing the unexpected: resilient performance in an age of uncertainty
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karl E. Weick, Kathleen Sutcliffe
2005 Shared mindfulness in cockpit crisis situations
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Janice L. Krieger
2005 Predicting risks of uncharacteristic wildfires: application of the risk assessment process
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anne Fairbrother, Jessica G. Turnley
2005 The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mark A. Finney
2005 Wildland fire hazard and risk: problems, definitions and context
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Colin C. Hardy
2004 Surviving the age of risk: a call for ethical management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Lance J. Ewing, Ryan B. Lee
2004 A new accident model for engineering safer systems
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Nancy Leveson
2004 Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Haiganoush K. Preisler, David R. Brillinger, Robert E. Burgan, John W. Benoit
2003 The spatial context of fire: a new approach for predicting fire occurrence
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Carol Miller
2002 Inviting disaster: lessons from the edge of technology
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James R. Chiles
2002 Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Paul Slovic, Melissa Finucane, Ellen Peters, Donald G. MacGregor
2000 Lessons from Longford: the Esso Gas Plant explosion
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Andrew Hopkins
2000 Sequential use of simulation and optimization in analysis and planning
Conference Proceedings
Hans R. Zuuring, Jimmie D. Chew, J. Greg Jones
1999 Managing major hazards: the lessons of the Moura Mine disaster
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Andrew Hopkins
1999 Normal accidents: living with high-risk technologies
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Charles Perrow
1999 Risk management for ecological stewardship
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
D.A. Cleaves, R. W. Haynes
1997 Managing the risks of organizational accidents
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James Reason
1997 Man-made disasters
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Barry A. Turner, Nick F. Pidgeon
1995 Beyond aviation human factors: safety in high technology systems
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Daniel E. Maurino, James Reason, Neil Johnston, Rob B. Lee
1994 Causes of disaster: sloppy management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Barry Turner
1993 Organizational communication imperatives: lessons of the space program
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Phillip K. Tompkins
1991 The 1985 Butte fire in central Idaho: a Canadian perspective on the associated burning conditions
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Martin E. Alexander
1990 Overcoming organizational defenses: facilitating organizational learning
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Chris Argyris
1990 Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion
1990 Conservatism, efficiency, and the value of life
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Douglas MacLean, Claudia Mills
1990 The history and politics of disaster management in the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Roy S. Popkin
1990 Military misfortunes: the anatomy of failure in war
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Eliot A. Cohen, John Gooch
1989 Decision traps: the ten barriers to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
J. Edward Russo, Paul J. H. Schoemaker
1988 Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, northern Rocky Mountains
Technical Report or White Paper
Thomas J. Mills, Frederick W. Bratten
1987 Searching for safety
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Aaron Wildavsky
1986 Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
1982 Risk and culture: an essay on the selection of technological and environmental dangers
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mary Douglas, Aaron Wildavsky
1981 Threat rigidity effects in organizational behavior: a multilevel analysis
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Barry Staw, Lance Sandelands, Jane Dutton

Management Documents

2009 A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: case study of wildland fire management in the USA
Randall J. F. Bruins, Wayne R. Munns, Stephen J. Botti, Steve Brink, David Cleland, Larry Kapustka, Danny C. Lee, Valerie Luzadis, Laura Falk McCarthy, Naureen Rana, Douglas B. Rideout, Matthew G. Rollins, Peter Woodbury, Mike Zupko