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Wildfire plays an important role in the ecosystems and landscapes that we manage. At the same time, heavy fuel accumulation coupled with a warmer, drier climate can promote extreme fire behavior that has potential to threaten communities. Land and fire managers must grapple with constant tension between the natural role of fire, the risk that wildfire poses to people and communities, and the risk that fire suppression activities pose to firefighters and other resources who respond.

This Hot Topic pulls together research, tools, and other information related to wildfire risk analysis, risk management, and decision support. It was developed in partnership with the USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Research Station.

Research Briefs

Syntheses

Technical Reports/White Papers

Publications

2024

From flexibility to feasibility: identifying the policy conditions that support the management of wildfire for objectives other than full suppression
Scott Thomas Franz et al.
A Call to Action: Rethinking Strategy in Wildfire Response
Bradley Pietruszka et al.
Decision Support for Landscapes with High Fire Hazard and Competing Values at Risk: The Upper Wenatchee Pilot Project
Haley K. Skinner et al.

2023

Wildland-urban fire disasters aren’t actually a wildfire problem
David E. Calkin et al.
Consequential lightning-caused wildfires and the “let burn” narrative
Bradley Pietruszka et al.
Wildfire response: A system on the brink?
Matthew P. Thompson et al.

2022

Collective action for managing wildfire risk across boundaries in forest and range landscapes: lessons from case studies in the western United States
Heidi Huber-Stearns et al.
How operations research and management science can help address the wildfire crisis
Matthew P. Thompson et al.

2021

The wildland fire system and challenges for engineering
Mark A. Finney
Patterns of wildfire risk in the United States from systematic operational risk assessments: how risk is characterised by land managers
Erin Noonan-Wright et al.
Is this flight necessary? The Aviation Use Summary (AUS): A framework for strategic, risk-informed aviation decision support
Crystal S. Stonesifer et al.

2020

The Path to Strategic Wildland Fire Management Planning
Richard D. Stratton
Fostering collective action to reduce wildfire risk across property boundaries in the American West
Susan Charnley et al.
Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality
Christopher J. Dunn et al.

2019

Interactions between Resident Risk Perceptions and Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Evidence from Simultaneous Equations Modeling
James R. Meldrum et al.
Exposure Complexity and Community Capacity to Manage Wildfire Risk: A Coupled Biophysical and Social Analysis of 60 Communities in the Western United States
Max W. Nielsen-Pincus et al.
Tradeoffs between US national forest harvest targets and fuel management to reduce wildfire transmission to the wildland urban interface
Alan A. Ager et al.
Designing operationally relevant daily large fire containment strategies using risk assessment results
Yu Wei et al.
Fine scale assessment of cross boundary wildfire events in the Western United States
Palaiologos Palaiologou et al.
Risk management and analytics in wildfire response
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Engaging the fire before it starts: A case study from the 2017 Pinal Fire (Arizona)
Christopher D. O'Connor et al.
We’re not doing enough prescribed fire in the western United States to mitigate wildfire risk
Crystal A. Kolden
Wildfire exposure to the wildland urban interface in the western US
Alan A. Ager et al.
Determinants of perceived risk and liability concerns associated with prescribed burning in the United States
Omkar Joshi et al.

2018

Guidelines for risk management in forest planning — what is risk and when is risk management useful?
Kyle Eyvindson et al.
Responding to risky neighbors: Testing for spatial spillover effects for defensible space in a fire-prone WUI community
Travis Warziniack et al.
Values of the public at risk of wildfire and its management
Kathryn J. Williams et al.
Wildfire risk mitigation: Local solutions to a national problem
Jonathan Bruno

2017

Uncertainty in natural hazards: modeling and decision support (Introduction)
Karen L. Riley et al.
Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes
Christine Olsen et al.
Federal fire managers' perceptions of the importance, scarcity and substitutability of suppression resources
Crystal S. Stonesifer et al.
Uncertainty in natural hazards, modeling and decision support: An introduction to this volume [Chapter 1]
Karen L. Riley et al.
Whither the paradigm shift? Large wildland fires and the wildfire paradox offer opportunities for a new paradigm of ecological fire management
Timothy Ingalsbee
Characterising resource use and potential inefficiencies during large-fire suppression in the western US
Hari Katuwal et al.
Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis (Chapter 2)
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Should I stay or should I go now? Or should I wait and see? Influences on wildfire evacuation decisions
Sarah M. McCaffrey et al.
Interacting effects of topography, vegetation, human activities and wildland-urban interfaces on wildfire ignition risk
María Calviño-Cancela et al.
Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin
William Matt Jolly et al.
The influence of incident management teams on the deployment of wildfire suppression resources

2016

Is seeing believing? Perceptions of wildfire risk over time
Patricia A. Champ et al.
Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology
A. Paige Fischer et al.
Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Examining alternative fuel management strategies and the relative contribution of National Forest System land to wildfire risk to adjacent homes - a pilot assessment on the Sierra National Forest, California, USA
Joe H. Scott et al.

2015

Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents and wildfire professionals
James R. Meldrum et al.
Integrating pixel- and polygon-based approaches to wildfire risk assessment: application to a high-value watershed on the Pike and San Isabel National Forests, Colorado, USA
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Negative consequences of positive feedbacks in US wildfire management
David E. Calkin et al.
Emerging concepts in wildfire risk assessment and management
Joe H. Scott et al.
Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management
Michael S. Hand et al.
Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool
Matthew P. Thompson et al.

2014

Developing an aviation exposure index to inform risk-based fire management decisions
Crystal S. Stonesifer et al.
Examining fire-prone landscapes as coupled human and natural systems
Thomas A. Spies et al.
Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA
Jessica R. Haas et al.
Risk savvy: how to make good decisions
Gerd Gigerenzer
Large airtanker use and outcomes in suppressing wildland fires in the United States
David E. Calkin et al.

2013

A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into wildland urban interface risk assessments within the United States
Jessica R. Haas et al.
Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers
Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer et al.
How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface
David E. Calkin et al.
A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics
Matthew P. Thompson
Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs
Kevin D. Hyde et al.
Analyzing the transmission of wildfire exposure on a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA
Alan A. Ager et al.
Forest fire management to avoid unintended consequences: a case study of Portugal using system dynamics
Ross D. Collins et al.
Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests
Alan A. Ager et al.
Simulating effects of land use policies on extent of the wildland urban interface and wildfire risk in Flathead County, Montana
Travis B. Paveglio et al.

2012

Quantifying the threat of unsuppressed wildfires reaching the adjacent wildland-urban interface on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA
Joe H. Scott et al.
Airtankers and wildfire management in the US Forest Service: examining data availability and exploring usage and cost trends
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Wildland Fire Management Decision Making
Tom Zimmerman

2011

Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making
David E. Calkin et al.
The Wildland Fire Decision Support System: Integrating science, technology, and fire management
Morgan Pence et al.
A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States
Mark A. Finney et al.
The exposure index: developing firefighter safety performance measures
David E. Calkin et al.
Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
A real-time risk assessment tool supporting wildland fire decisionmaking
David E. Calkin et al.
Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values
Matthew P. Thompson et al.
Primer on risk analysis: decision making under uncertainty
Charles Yoe
Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers
Robyn S. Wilson et al.

2009

Risk management - principles and guidelines
Geneva Switzerland International organization for standardization

2007

Managing the unexpected: resilient performance in an age of uncertainty
Karl E. Weick et al.

2005

The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire
Mark A. Finney
Accepting uncertainty, assessing risk: decision quality in managing wildfire, forest resource values, and new technology
Jeffrey G. Borchers
Wildland fire hazard and risk: problems, definitions and context
Colin C. Hardy
Predicting risks of uncharacteristic wildfires: application of the risk assessment process
Anne Fairbrother et al.

2004

Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk
Haiganoush K. Preisler et al.

2002

Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality
Paul Slovic et al.

1999

Risk management for ecological stewardship
D.A. Cleaves et al.

1997

Managing environmental uncertainty with legitimate authority: a comparative analysis of the Mann Gulch and Storm King Mountain Fires
G. Stoney Alder

1993

Preventing chaos in a crisis: strategies for prevention, control and damage limitation
Patrick Lagadec

1990

Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis
M. Granger Morgan et al.
The history and politics of disaster management in the United States
Roy S. Popkin

1989

Decision traps: the ten barriers to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them
J. Edward Russo et al.