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Federal policy has embraced risk management as an appropriate paradigm for wildfire management. Economic theory suggests that over repeated wildfire events, potential economic costs and risks of ecological damage are optimally balanced when…
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In October, the 12th International Wildland Fire Safety Summit in Sydney, Australia brought together students of fire from all over the world to explore new approaches in wildland fire safety. Participants attended from the USA, Switzerland, Hong…
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This publication focuses on the thought processes and considerations surrounding a risk management process for decision making on wildfires. The publication introduces a six element risk management cycle designed to encourage sound risk-informed…
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Spatially explicit burn probability modeling is increasingly applied to assess wildfire risk and inform mitigation strategy development. Burn probabilities are typically expressed on a per-pixel basis, calculated as the number of times a pixel burns…
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Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM).…
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Wildland fire management in the United States has historically been a challenging and complex program governed by a multitude of factors including situational status, objectives, operational capability, science and technology, and changes and…
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Evaluating the risks of wildfire relative to the valuable resources found in any managed landscape requires an interdisciplinary approach. Researchers at the Rocky Mountain Research Station and Western Wildland Threat Assessment Center developed…
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Development of appropriate management strategies for escaped wildland fires is complex. Fire managers need the ability to identify, in real time, the likelihood that wildfire will affect valuable developed and natural resources (e.g., private…
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A methodology for incident decomposition and reconstruction is developed based on the concept of an "event-frame model." The event-frame model characterizes a fire incident in terms of (a) environmental events that pertain to the fire and the fire…
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United States wildland fire policy and program reviews in 1995 and 2000 required both the reduction of hazardous fuel and recognition of fire as a natural process. Despite the fact that existing policy permits managing natural ignitions to meet…
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In Useem’s earlier book, “The Leadership Moment,” he described leadership lessons that could be learned from various situations, including the Mann Gulch disaster. In this book, Useem has turned his attention from leadership to decision making,…
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We provide highlights of some of the results thus far for the National Fire and Fire Surrogate study (FFS). Highlights summarize work that has been published within the last four years (2003-2006), primarily in theses, proceedings, general technical…
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Consistently successful decision making can make or break an individual or an organization. Perhaps counter intuitively, individuals who repeatedly make effective, successful decisions are not necessarily those who have the most information or spend…
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Organizations managing forest land often make fire management decisions that seem overly risk-averse in relation to their stated goals for ecosystem restoration, protection of sensitive species and habitats, and protection of water and timber…
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Powerpoint presentation MODIS Applications in 2003 Fire Management
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This book was published following a conference on naturalistic decision making held in Stockholm in 2000. Naturalistic decision making (NDM) is a subset of decision making theory that focuses on situations where there are ill-structured problems;…
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Gonzales attempts to answer the question of why, in life threatening events, do some people survive and others die? In a series of true-life stories about people who have had skills and behaviors of “miraculous endurance” or who have met “sudden…
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From documents related to the 1994 South Canyon fire in Colorado, Larson examines how two worldviews presented by J.R. Taylor in his book, “Rethinking the theory of organizational communication: how to read an organization” function as sensemaking…
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Intuition is an important factor in decision making, equal to the roles of reading data and interpreting numbers. Klein defines intuition as “the way we translate our experiences into action”. Based upon his research, involving interviews with a…
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The Columbia Accident Review Board’s (CAIB) investigation of the February 1, 2003 loss of the space shuttle Columbia lasted nearly 7 months. The loss of seven crew members and later, two debris searchers, lead to a thorough attempt to discover the…
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