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Climate & Fire Projections

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Storymaps

Indigenous Peoples, Climate Change & Concurrent Risks

Research Briefs

2013 Do carbon offsets work? The role of forest management in greenhouse gas mitigation
Marie Oliver
2009 Climate and fire in the northern Rockies: past, present, and future
Rachel Clark
2007 The fire-climate connection
Gail Wells
2004 Western forest, fire risk, and climate change
Valerie A. Rapp

Syntheses

2017 Potential Climate Feedbacks of Changing Fire regimes in the U.S.: A review - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Anping Chen et al.
2016 Human-caused climate change is now a key driver of forest fire activity in the western United States
Brian J. Harvey
2013 Managing forests and fire in changing climates
Scott L. Stephens et al.
2012 Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. forest sector
2012 Chapter 2: Effects of climatic variability and change
Michael G. Ryan et al.
2011 Synthesis of knowledge: fire history and climate change
William T. Sommers et al.
2008 Climate and forest wildfire in the western US
Anthony L. Westerling
2004 Climatic changes, wildfire, and conservation
Donald McKenzie et al.

Publications/Reports

2020 Warmer and drier fire seasons contribute to increases in area burned at high severity in western US forests from 1985‐2017
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sean A. Parks et al.
2020 Forest management under megadrought: urgent needs at finer-scale and higher-intensity
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jason P. Field et al.
2019 Examining post-fire vegetation recovery with Landsat time series analysis in three western North American forest types
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Benjamin C. Bright et al.
2018 Effects of climate change on ecological disturbance in the Northern Rockies (Chapter 7)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Rachel A. Loehman et al.
2018 Human impacts on 20th century fire dynamics and implications for global carbon and water trajectories
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Fang Li et al.
2018 A Statement of Common Ground Regarding the Role of Wildfire in Forested Landscapes of the Western United States
Technical Report or White Paper
Max A. Moritz et al.
2017 Towards improving wildland firefighter situational awareness through daily fire behaviour risk assessments in the US Northern Rockies and Northern Great Basin
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
William Matt Jolly et al.
2017 Fine‐scale spatial climate variation and drought mediate the likelihood of reburning
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sean A. Parks et al.
2017 Analog-based fire regime and vegetation shifts in mountainous regions of the western US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sean A. Parks et al.
2017 Direct and indirect climate controls predict heterogeneous early-mid 21st century wildfire burned area across western and boreal North America
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Thomas Kitzberger et al.
2017 Human presence diminishes the importance of climate in driving fire activity across the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alexandra D. Syphard et al.
2017 Wildfire–vegetation dynamics affect predictions of climate change impact on bird communities
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Adrián Regos et al.
2017 Trend analysis of fire season length and extreme fire weather in North America between 1979 and 2015
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Piyush Jain et al.
2017 Disturbance and productivity interactions mediate stability of forest composition and structure
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher D. O'Connor et al.
2017 Effects of climate oscillations on wildland fire potential in the continental United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Shelby A. Mason et al.
2017 Effects of climate change on rangeland vegetation in the northern Rockies
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew C. Reeves et al.
2017 Climate change and wildfire effects in aridland riparian ecosystems: An examination of current and future conditions
Technical Report or White Paper
D. Max Smith et al.
2017 The normal fire environment—Modeling environmental suitability for large forest wildfires using past, present, and future climate normals
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Raymond J. Davis et al.
2017 Selective breeding of lodgepole pine increases growth and maintains climatic adaptation
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Ian R. MacLachlan et al.
2017 Climate change and the eco-hydrology of fire: will area burned increase in a warming western USA?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Donald McKenzie et al.
2017 Disturbances catalyze the adaptation of forest ecosystems to changing climate conditions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Dominik Thom et al.
2017 Climate drives inter-annual variability in probability of high severity fire occurrence in the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alisa Keyser et al.
2017 Spatio-Temporal Linkages between Declining Arctic Sea-Ice Extent and Increasing Wildfire Activity in the Western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Paul A. Knapp et al.
2016 Using scientific conferences to engage the public on climate change
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jeffrey A. Hicke et al.
2016 How will climate change affect wildland fire severity in the western US?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sean A. Parks et al.
2016 Recent advances and remaining uncertainties in resolving past and future climate effects on global fire activity
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
A. Park Williams et al.
2016 Attribution of extreme weather events in the context of climate change - Report in brief
Technical Report or White Paper
Committee on Extreme Weather Events and Climate Change Attribution
2016 Spatial coherence of extreme precipitation events in the Northwestern United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Lauren E. Parker et al.
2016 Topographic and fire weather controls of contemporary fire refugia in forested ecosystems of northwestern North America
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Meg A. Krawchuk et al.
2016 A new method comparing snowmelt timing with annual area burned
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Donal S. O'Leary et al.
2016 Global trends in wildfire and its impacts: perceptions versus realities in a changing world
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Stefan H. Doerr et al.
2016 Increasing western US forest wildfire activity: sensitivity to changes in the timing of spring
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anthony L. Westerling
2016 Particulate air pollution from wildfires in the western US under climate change
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jia Coco Liu et al.
2016 Human-caused climate change is now a key driver of forest fire activity in the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Brian J. Harvey
2016 Mid-21st-century climate changes increase predicted fire occurrence and fire season length, Northern Rocky Mountains, United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karen L. Riley et al.
2015 Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
William Matt Jolly et al.
2015 Regional likelihood of very large wildfires over the 21st century across the western United States: motivation to study individual events like the Rim Fire, a unique opportunity with unprecedented remote sensing data
Conference Proceedings
E. Natasha Stavros et al.
2015 Impacts of changing fire regimes in the alpine treeline ecotone
Technical Report or White Paper
Donald McKenzie et al.
2015 Projected major fire and vegetation changes in the Pacific Northwest of the conterminous United States under selected CMIP5 climate futures
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Timothy J. Sheehan et al.
2015 Future mega-fires and smoke impacts
Technical Report or White Paper
Narasimhan K. Larkin et al.
2015 Indicators of climate impacts for forests: recommendations for the US National Climate Assessment indicators system
Technical Report or White Paper
Linda S. Heath et al.
2015 The climate space of fire regimes in north-western North America
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Ellen Whitman et al.
2015 Improved Bias Correction Techniques for Hydrological Simulations of Climate Change
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David W. Pierce et al.
2015 Identification of Fire Refugia in Rocky Mountain Ecosystems of the U.S. and Canada: Development and Application of the Refugium Concept for Biodiversity Conservation over Large Spatial and Temporal Scales
Technical Report or White Paper
Geneva W. Chong
2015 The changing strength and nature of fire-climate relationships in the northern Rocky Mountains, U.S.A., 1902-2008
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Philip E. Higuera et al.
2015 Indicators of climate change in Idaho: an assessment framework for coupling biophysical change and social perception
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
P. Zion Klos
2015 Seasonal reversal of the influence of El Niño–Southern Oscillation on very large wildfire occurrence in the interior northwestern United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Renaud Barbero et al.
2015 The cost of climate change: ecosystem services and wildland fires
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christine Lee et al.
2015 Biomass and fire dynamics in a temperate forest-grassland mosaic: Integrating multi-species herbivory, climate, and fire with the FireBGCv2/GrazeBGC system
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Robert A. Riggs et al.
2015 The potential impact of regional climate change on fire weather in the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Ying Tang et al.
2015 Climate-induced variations in global wildfire danger from 1979 to 2013
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
William Matt Jolly et al.
2015 Climate change presents increased potential for very large fires in the contiguous United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Renaud Barbero et al.
2014 Seasonal climate variability and change in the Pacific Northwest of the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
John T. Abatzoglou et al.
2014 Impacts of mega-fires on large U.S. urban area air quality under changing climate and fuels
Technical Report or White Paper
Yongqiang Liu et al.
2014 The climate-wildfire-air quality system: interactions and feedbacks across spatial and temporal scales
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
E. Natasha Stavros et al.
2014 The limits of statistical climate-fire modeling: what goes up must come down
Presentation Slides
Jeremy S. Littell
2014 Playing with fire: how climate change and development patterns are contributing to the soaring costs of western wildfires
Technical Report or White Paper
Rachel Cleetus et al.
2014 Briefing: climate and wildfire in western U.S. forests
Technical Report or White Paper
Anthony L. Westerling et al.
2014 Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
E. Natasha Stavros et al.
2014 Climate and very large wildland fires in the contiguous western USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
E. Natasha Stavros et al.
2014 Fire activity and severity in the western US vary along proxy gradients representing fuel amount and fuel moisture
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sean A. Parks et al.
2014 Climate change impacts on fire regimes and key ecosystem services in Rocky Mountain forests
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Monique E. Rocca et al.
2014 A primer on global climate-change science
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
John T. Abatzoglou et al.
2014 Climate change effects, adaptation, and mitigation
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
John T. Abatzoglou et al.
2014 Observed changes in false springs over the contiguous United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alexander G. Peterson et al.
2014 Current climate and recent trends
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Kelly T. Redmond et al.
2013 Managing forests and fire in changing climates
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Scott L. Stephens et al.
2013 Climate change in the Northwest
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Philip W. Mote et al.
2013 Climate change and wildfires
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
William J. de Groot et al.
2013 The missing mountain water: slower westerlies decrease orographic enhancement in the Pacific Northwest USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Charles H. Luce et al.
2013 Evaluation of CMIP5 20th century climate simulations for the Pacific Northwest USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Rupp et al.
2013 The climate velocity of the contiguous United States during the 20th century
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Solomon Z. Dobrowski et al.
2013 Culture, law, risk and governance: contexts of traditional knowledge in climate change adaptation
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Terry Williams et al.
2013 Climatic stress increases forest fire severity across the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Phillip J. van Mantgem et al.
2013 Estimating critical climate-driven thresholds in landscape dynamics using spatial simulation modeling: climate change tipping points in fire management - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Technical Report or White Paper
Robert E. Keane et al.
2012 Effects of climatic variability and change on forest ecosystems: a comprehensive science synthesis for the U.S. forest sector
Synthesis, Technical Report or White Paper
2012 Chapter 2: Effects of climatic variability and change
Synthesis, Technical Report or White Paper
Michael G. Ryan et al.
2012 Climate extremes and their linkage to regional drought over Idaho, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mohammad Sohrabi et al.
2012 Climate and vegetation influences on fire impacts in Alaskan boreal forest: implications for carbon and fire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Crystal A. Kolden et al.
2012 Climate change, forests, fire, water, and fish: building resilient landscapes, streams, and managers
Technical Report or White Paper
Charles H. Luce et al.
2011 Synthesis of knowledge: fire history and climate change
Synthesis, Technical Report or White Paper
William T. Sommers et al.
2011 Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species optimum elevations
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Shawn M. Crimmins et al.
2011 Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anthony L. Westerling et al.
2011 Climate change in western US deserts: potential for increased wildfire and invasive annual grasses
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
John T. Abatzoglou et al.
2011 Wildfire extent and severity correlated with annual streamflow distribution and timing in the Pacific Northwest, USA (1984-2005)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Zachary A. Holden et al.
2011 Empirical downscaling of daily minimum air temperature at very fine resolutions in complex terrain
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Zachary A. Holden et al.
2011 Influence of the PNA on declining mountain snowpack in the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
John T. Abatzoglou
2010 A century of climate and ecosystem change in Western Montana: what do temperature trends portend?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Gregory T. Pederson et al.
2009 Climate and wildfire area burned in western U.S. ecoprovinces, 1916-2003
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jeremy S. Littell et al.
2009 Influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on summertime cloud-to-ground lightning activity over the continental US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
John T. Abatzoglou et al.
2009 How much influence does landscape-scale physiography have on air temperature in a mountain environment?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Solomon Z. Dobrowski et al.
2009 Understanding the science of climate change: talking points - impacts to western mountains and forests
Technical Report or White Paper
Rachel A. Loehman et al.
2009 Learning the rhythm of the seasons in the face of global change: phenological research in the 21st century
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jeffrey T. Morrisette et al.
2008 Climate change effects on historical range and variability of two large landscapes in western Montana, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Robert E. Keane et al.
2008 Multi-season climate synchronized forest fires throughout the 20th century, Northern Rockies, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Penelope Morgan et al.
2008 Climate and forest wildfire in the western US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Anthony L. Westerling
2008 Multi-season climate synchronized historical fires in dry forests (1650-1900), Northern Rockies, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Emily K. Heyerdahl et al.
2008 Climate drivers of regionally synchronous fires in the inland northwest (1651-1900)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Emily K. Heyerdahl et al.
2007 The asymmetry of trends in spring and autumn temperature and circulation regimes over western North America
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
John T. Abatzoglou et al.
2007 Climate Change: what it means for us, our children, and our grandchildren
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
J.F.C. DiMento et al.
2006 Planetary wave breaking and nonlinear reflection: seasonal cycle and interannual variability
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
John T. Abatzoglou et al.
2006 Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Steven W. Running
2006 Warming and earlier spring increase western U.S. forest wildfire activity
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anthony L. Westerling et al.
2005 Climate drivers of fire and fuel in the Northern Rockies: past, present & future - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Technical Report or White Paper
Penelope Morgan et al.
2004 Climatic changes, wildfire, and conservation
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Donald McKenzie et al.
2004 The impact of twenty-first century climate change on wildland fire danger in the western United States: an applications perspective
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Timothy J. Brown et al.
2003 The role of climate and vegetation change in shaping past and future fire regimes in the northwestern U.S. and the implications for ecosystem management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Cathy L. Whitlock et al.
2001 Climate change and forest disturbances
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Virginia H. Dale et al.
Climate change 2014: Mitigation of climate change
Book or Chapter or Journal Article

Management Documents

2017 2017 Montana Climate Assessment - stakeholder driven science informed
Cathy L. Whitlock et al.

Videos

Dec 5, 2020 How We Survive: Staving off drought and living with fire
Molly Wood
Sep 22, 2018 Landscape Restoration - Part 1
Paul F. Hessburg
Sep 22, 2018 Building and Maintaining Resilience - Part 2
Bob Gray
Jul 11, 2016 Fire and Climate Relationships in the Northern Rockies
Philip E. Higuera
Jan 21, 2016 Climate change - Ponderosa pine forests and fire
Michael A. Battaglia
Oct 29, 2015 Past and future wildfire in the Interior West
Richard Guyette
Jun 18, 2014 Braids of truth - Part 2: climate change

Webinars

Mar 5, 2019 Expect the Unexpected: Fire Management Challenges and Opportunities in a Changing Climate
Amanda Stamper Rau
Sep 20, 2017 Taking action on climate change in the Crown of the Continent
Anne Carlson
Jan 7, 2016 Fire, forests, and climate
Penelope Morgan
Oct 20, 2015 Aspen response to drought and climate change in the 21st century
William R.L. Anderegg
Sep 15, 2014 The NRAP assessment of climate change - Impacts on forest and non-forest vegetation
Robert E. Keane
Jul 17, 2014 The national climate assessment and wildland fire implications
Timothy J. Brown
Jun 23, 2014 Communicating about climate change - From impacts to solutions
Cara Pyke
May 6, 2014 Understanding fire refugia and their importance to conservation in the Rocky Mountains of the U.S. and Canada
Sandra L. Haire
Apr 1, 2014 Frequently asked questions about climate projections
Amy Daniels
Mar 19, 2014 Smoke consequences of new wildfire regimes driven by climate change
Donald McKenzie
Jan 23, 2014 Sagebrush responses to shifting climate and fire disturbances
Matthew J. Germino
Sep 27, 2011 The pyrogeography of western North America: how climate has affected fire regimes and fire history across the west, and where we may be going in the future
Peter M. Brown
May 3, 2011 Fire, carbon, and climate: past and future
Michael G. Ryan
Oct 19, 2010 Climate change and fire projections in the West: why the science should matter to managers
Jeremy S. Littell, Glenn Gibson

Upcoming Events

Québec RE3 Conference
June 19, 2021 to June 24, 2021

Past Events

Fire in the Crown of the Continent
March 22, 2021 to March 26, 2021
Learning about Resilient Futures - Missoula
February 20, 2020 to February 21, 2020
10th Annual Northwest Climate Conference
October 8, 2019 to October 10, 2019
Symposium: Climate Change and the Ecology of Sierra Nevada Forests
September 20, 2019 to September 21, 2019
12th Fire and Forest Meteorology Symposium
May 15, 2018 to May 18, 2018
7th Annual Northwest Climate Conference
November 14, 2016 to November 16, 2016
43rd Natural Areas Conference
October 18, 2016 to October 21, 2016
Adaptive Silviculture for Climate Change
June 28, 2016
Sagebrush, Sage-Grouse, and Climate - Rangeland Fire Management Priority Science Needs
May 18, 2016
The Future of Fire and Fuels Management: Adapting Fuels Treatments in a Changing Climate
April 11, 2016
Water and fire: impact of climate change
April 10, 2016 to April 11, 2016
2016 Crown Managers Partnership Annual Forum
March 15, 2016 to March 17, 2016
2016 Rocky Mountain Land Use Institute Conference
March 10, 2016 to March 11, 2016
Forest Health in Oregon: State of the State
February 16, 2016 to February 17, 2016
2015 MSU Extension Climate Science Conference
December 8, 2015 to December 10, 2015
Sixth Annual Pacific Northwest Climate Science Conference
November 3, 2015 to November 5, 2015
Fire History and Fire Ecology in Yellowstone - A Field Tour
October 1, 2015 to October 2, 2015
Springs Assessment and Climate Adaptation Workshop
July 29, 2015 to July 31, 2015
2015 Open Science Conference
May 20, 2015 to May 22, 2015