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The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial…
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This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn…
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A cornerstone of effective institutional learning and accountability is the development, tracking, and analysis of informative performance measures. In a previous issue of Fire Management Today ("A New Look at Risk Management," Winter 2011), a…
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In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know…
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Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at…
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Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and…
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In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and…
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The FLAME Act of 2009 requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Interior to submit to Congress a Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy. In this report, we explore the general science available for a risk-…
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Federal agency policy requires documentation and analysis of all wildland fire response decisions. In the past, planning and decision documentation for fires were completed using multiple unconnected processes, yielding many limitations. In response…
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Risk assessment has become a dominant public policy tool for making choices, based on limited resources, to protect public health and the environment. It has been instrumental to the mission of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) as well…
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ISO 31000:2018 provides guidelines on managing risk faced by organizations. The application of these guidelines can be customized to any organization and its context. ISO 31000:2018 provides a common approach to managing any type of risk and is not…
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Ecological risk assessments typically are organized using the processes of planning (a discussion among managers, stakeholders, and analysts to clarify ecosystem management goals and assessment scope) and problem formulation (evaluation of existing…
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Perrow, developer of normal accident theory, argues here that we must reduce the size of targets that are vulnerable to disasters because organizations, including political ones, cannot completely prevent all the risks associated with the potential…
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Thousands of firefighters across the United States have been influenced by the first edition of “Managing the Unexpected”. In this second edition, the authors continue their analysis of high reliability organizations (HRO’s), which are organizations…
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Federal wildland fire management programs have readily embraced the practice of fuel treatment. Wildland fire risk is quantified as expected annual loss ($ yr-1 or $ yr-1 ac-1). Fire risk at a point on the landscape is a function of the probability…
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The risks, hazards, and relative severity of wildland fires are presented here within the ecological context of historical natural fire regimes, time, space, and process. As the public dialogue on the role and impacts of wildland fire increases, it…
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Research reveals that human error contributes 60 to 80 percent of error in aviation accidents and disasters. Thus, despite innovations in technology and safety materials, individuals must be able to make speedy yet intelligent decisions and be able…
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The purpose of this project is to help identify and prioritize the elements of successful communication strategies so that agency personnel can adapt them to their own situation for meeting management objectives. Preferred outcomes include…
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Quantitative fire risk analysis depends on characterizing and combining fire behavior probabilities and effects. Fire behavior probabilities are different from fire occurrence statistics (historic numbers or probabilities of discovered ignitions)…
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The National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) mandates that the U.S. Forest Service (USFS) conduct an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) as its fire management policy evolves to cope with a legacy of over 100 years of fire suppression on national…
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