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Quantitative fire risk analysis depends on characterizing and combining fire behavior probabilities and effects. Fire behavior probabilities are different from fire occurrence statistics (historic numbers or probabilities of discovered ignitions)…
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Leveson argues that most accident models are designed for simple systems. Newer accident models are needed because of the changing landscape of organizational systems and the changing contexts in which they are developed. Fast-paced technological…
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We present a probability-based model for estimating fire risk. Risk is defined using three probabilities: the probability of fire occurrence; the conditional probability of a large fire given ignition; and the unconditional probability of a large…
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Ewing and Lee look at some of the ways to consider ethical risk management in a corporate context, which have changed because of recent scandals such as Enron. They give six ways to create an ethical risk management environment (the six Cs): 1)…
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Across North America, decades of fire suppression and recent patterns of human settlement have combined to increase the risks that wildland fires pose to human life, property, and natural resource values. Various methods can be used to reduce fuel…
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While technology has provided the means for achieving unprecedented control over land, air, and sea, it has also become increasingly complex. As a result of this complexity, disasters are difficult to predict, and they are even more difficult to…
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Risk assessment is often viewed as a logical, cause-effect process that uses mathematics and gives little credence to feelings. Without discounting the need for a rational approach to categorizing risk analysis, the authors show how affect, feelings…
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The Esso gas plant explosion of 1998 represents a series of organizational failures that resulted in devastating consequences, including two deaths. This book examines those organizational failures through the findings of the Royal Commission. The…
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Management activities are analyzed at landscape scales employing both simulation and optimization. SIMPPLLE, a stochastic simulation modeling system, is initially applied to assess the risks associated with a specific natural process occurring on…
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In every organization, things go wrong. For the most part, these errors are minor and often go unnoticed. However, when disaster occurs, external pressure often forces the exposure of many of the failures that occur within an organization. Thus, a…
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Many of the accidents that organizations face are a result of complex interactions between multiple events and with multiple actors. They cannot be explained as being only one group or individual’s “fault”. In this book, Perrow investigates the…
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This comprehensive chapter documents, from a management perspective, the knowledge base on risk assessments and risk management. The previous chapter in the book is a companion article that provides the scientific foundation for the concepts and…
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Carroll begins by discussing how different staff members in an organization know different things about how work is accomplished. For an organization to run properly, these staff members must engage in organizational learning, which means…
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This book focuses on the causes, consequences, and possible means of avoiding organizational accidents. While individual accidents are more frequent and often target the individual for blame, organizational accidents are deep rooted errors in the…
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To understand and avoid future calamities, decision makers must have a more accurate way of understanding past calamities. Most of what we know about calamities comes from eye witness accounts that favor relief efforts and damage reports rather than…
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Alder recognizes two decisions common to both the Mann Gulch and Storm King Mountain fires that influenced the behavior of firefighters during critical moments: 1) failing to question authority and 2) failing to obey authority. He argues that these…
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Researchers have often studied and discussed errors and accidents within an organizational setting in two ways. The first focuses on the individual, while the second looks at the system in which the individual operates. Edmondson argues for a third…
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Aviation human factors investigations have typically blamed individual behavior as the primary cause of serious work accidents. However, this book argues that organizations are responsible for two aspects that contribute to work related accidents: 1…
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Turner argues that while the best way to avoid disasters is primarily “for managers to establish, to strengthen, and then to assert control,” management control only addresses part of the problem, and there are limitations that affect management in…
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Drawing upon experience working for NASA during the Apollo Missions and his studies of organizational communication, Tompkins illustrates that taking a communication perspective can help with understanding organizational problems. This book takes a…
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