Hans R. Zuuring, Jimmie D. Chew, J. Greg Jones
Year Published:

Cataloging Information

Fire Behavior
Simulation Modeling
Risk assessment
Strategic Risk
Montane dry mixed-conifer forest, Ponderosa pine woodland/savanna

NRFSN number: 11045
FRAMES RCS number: 8333
Record updated: February 20, 2019

Management activities are analyzed at landscape scales employing both simulation and optimization. SIMPPLLE, a stochastic simulation modeling system, is initially applied to assess the risks associated with a specific natural process occurring on the current landscape without management treatments, but with fire suppression. These simulation results are input into MAGIS, an optimization modeling system, for scheduling activities that reduce these risks and address other management objectives. The derived treatment schedules are utilized in additional SIMPPLLE simulations to examine the changes in risks and other natural processes. Treatment effects are quantified as changes in the predicted extent and frequency of occurrence of a specific natural process and the resulting economic benefits. An application involving the analysis of fuel treatments applied over time and space to reduce wildfire risks is presented to illustrate this modeling framework that utilizes the strengths of both simulation and optimization.


Zuuring, Hans R.; Chew, Jimmie D.; Jones, J. Greg. 2000. Sequential use of simulation and optimization in analysis and planning. In: Smith, Helen Y., ed. The Bitterroot Ecosystem Management Research Project: what we have learned, symposium proceedings; 1999 May 18-20; Missoula, MT. Proceedings RMRS-P-17. Ogden, UT: USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. p. 97-103.

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