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The FLAME Act of 2009 requires the U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service and the U.S. Department of Interior to submit to Congress a Cohesive Wildfire Management Strategy. In this report, we explore the general science available for a risk-…
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In every decision context there are things we know and things we do not know. Risk analysis uses science and the best available evidence to assess what we know—and it is intentional in the way it addresses the importance of the things we don’t know…
Author(s): Charles Yoe
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Development of appropriate management strategies for escaped wildland fires is complex. Fire managers need the ability to identify, in real time, the likelihood that wildfire will affect valuable developed and natural resources (e.g., private…
Author(s): David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson, Mark A. Finney, Kevin D. Hyde
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A cornerstone of effective institutional learning and accountability is the development, tracking, and analysis of informative performance measures. In a previous issue of Fire Management Today ("A New Look at Risk Management," Winter 2011), a…
Author(s): David E. Calkin, John Phipps, Thomas P. Holmes, Jon D. Rieck, Matthew P. Thompson
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Wildland fire management is subject to manifold sources of uncertainty. Beyond the unpredictability of wildfire behavior, uncertainty stems from inaccurate/missing data, limited resource value measures to guide prioritization across fires and…
Author(s): Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
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The spatial, temporal, and social dimensions of wildfire risk are challenging U.S. federal land management agencies to meet societal needs while maintaining the health of the lands they manage. In this paper we present a quantitative, geospatial…
Author(s): Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Mark A. Finney, Alan A. Ager, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
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This simulation research was conducted in order to develop a large-fire risk assessment system for the contiguous land area of the United States. The modeling system was applied to each of 134 Fire Planning Units (FPUs) to estimate burn…
Author(s): Mark A. Finney, Charles W. McHugh, Isaac C. Grenfell, Karen L. Riley, Karen C. Short
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Federal agency policy requires documentation and analysis of all wildland fire response decisions. In the past, planning and decision documentation for fires were completed using multiple unconnected processes, yielding many limitations. In response…
Author(s): Morgan Pence, Tom Zimmerman
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In this article, we describe the design and development of a quantitative, geospatial risk assessment tool intended to facilitate monitoring trends in wildfire risk over time and to provide information useful in prioritizing fuels treatments and…
Author(s): Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Alan A. Ager
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Managing wildfire events to achieve multiple management objectives involves a high degree of decision complexity and uncertainty, increasing the likelihood that decisions will be informed by experience-based heuristics triggered by available cues at…
Author(s): Robyn S. Wilson, Patricia L. Winter, Lynn A. Maguire, Timothy Ascher
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