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Escape probability: an alternative risk metric to support and evaluate wilderness fire management decisions
A goal of fire management in wilderness is to allow fire to play its natural ecological role without intervention. Unfortunately, most unplanned ignitions in wilderness are suppressed, in part because of the risk they might pose to values outside of…
Author(s): Kevin M. Barnett
Year Published:

Characterizing wildfire hazard and risk in mountain pine beetle-affected stands and how to identify those characteristics at the landscape-scale
The transformation of fuels resulting from the mountain pine beetle epidemic is unprecedented in its large geographic extent and the rapid pace of the transformation. This paper describes a proposed fire risk and hazard characterization system, as…
Author(s): Robert W. Gray
Year Published:

Appendix 2: Risk-based framework and risk case studies. Risk assessment for wildfire in the Western United States
Wildfire is one of the two most significant disturbance agents (the other being insects) in forest ecosystems of the Western United States, and in a warmer climate, will drive changes in forest composition, structure, and function (Dale et al. 2001…
Author(s): David L. Peterson, Jeremy S. Littell
Year Published:

Quantifying the threat of unsuppressed wildfires reaching the adjacent wildland-urban interface on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA
An important objective for many federal land management agencies is to restore fire to ecosystems that have experienced fire suppression or exclusion over the last century. Managing wildfires for resource objectives (i.e., allowing wildfires to burn…
Author(s): Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Sean A. Parks, Carol Miller
Year Published:

Mapping tradeoffs in values at risk at the interface between wilderness and non-wilderness lands
On the Flathead Indian Reservation in Montana, U.S., the Mission Mountains Tribal Wilderness is bordered by a buffer zone. To successfully improve forest health within that buffer zone and restore fire in the wilderness, the managing agency and the…
Author(s): Alan E. Watson, Roian Matt, Tim Waters, Kari Gunderson, Stephen J. Carver, Brett Davis
Year Published:

Managing fire risk in the forests of the U.S. inland Northwest: a classic "wicked problem" in public land policy
In their classic article published in the Journal of Forestry in 1986, Gerald Allen and Ernest Gould stated that the most daunting problems associated with public forest management have a "wicked" element: "Wicked problems share…
Author(s): Matthew S. Carroll, Keith A. Blatner, Patricia J. Cohn, Charles E. Keegan, Todd A. Morgan
Year Published:

The spatial context of fire: a new approach for predicting fire occurrence
Across North America, decades of fire suppression and recent patterns of human settlement have combined to increase the risks that wildland fires pose to human life, property, and natural resource values. Various methods can be used to reduce fuel…
Author(s): Carol Miller
Year Published:

Sequential use of simulation and optimization in analysis and planning
Management activities are analyzed at landscape scales employing both simulation and optimization. SIMPPLLE, a stochastic simulation modeling system, is initially applied to assess the risks associated with a specific natural process occurring on…
Author(s): Hans R. Zuuring, Jimmie D. Chew, J. Greg Jones
Year Published:

An overview of the fire and fuels extension to the forest vegetation simulator
The Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) to the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) has been developed to assess the risk, behavior, and impact of fire in forest ecosystems. This extension to the widely-used stand-dynamics model FVS simulates the dynamics…
Author(s): Sarah J. Beukema, Elizabeth D. Reinhardt, Werner A. Kurz, Nicholas L. Crookston
Year Published:

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