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Uncertainty associated with model predictions of surface and crown fire rates of spread

Author(s): Miguel G. Cruz, Martin E. Alexander
Year Published: 2013

The degree of accuracy in model predictions of rate of spread in wildland fires is dependent on the model's applicability to a given situation, the validity of the model's relationships, and the reliability of the model input data. On the basis of a compilation of 49 fire spread model evaluation datasets involving 1278 observations in seven different fuel type groups, the limits on the predictability of current operational models are examined. Only 3% of the predictions (i.e. 35 out of 1278) were considered to be exact predictions according to the criteria used in this study. Mean percent error varied between 20 and 310% and was homogeneous across fuel type groups. Slightly more than half of the evaluation datasets had mean errors between 51 and 75%. Under-prediction bias was prevalent in 75% of the 49 datasets analysed. A case is made for suggesting that a + or -35% error interval (i.e. approximately one standard deviation) would constitute a reasonable standard for model performance in predicting a wildland fire's forward or heading rate of spread. We also found that empirical-based fire behavior models developed from a solid foundation of field observations and well accepted functional forms adequately predicted rates of fire spread far outside of the bounds of the original dataset used in their development.

Citation: Cruz, Miguel G.; Alexander, Martin E. 2013. Uncertainty associated with model predictions of surface and crown fire rates of spread. Environmental Modelling & Software. 47: 16-28.
Topic(s): Fire Behavior, Data Evaluation or Data Analysis for Fire Modeling, Fire Prediction
Ecosystem(s): None
Document Type: Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Hot Topic(s): Fire Behavior Prediction
NRFSN number: 12418
FRAMES RCS number: 16277
Record updated: Jun 13, 2018