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Rapid climate change has the potential to affect economic, social, and biological systems. A concern for species conservation is whether or not the rate of on-going climate change will exceed the rate at which species can adapt or move to suitable…
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Climate change, forests, fire, water, and fish: building resilient landscapes, streams, and managers
Fire will play an important role in shaping forest and stream ecosystems as the climate changes. Historic observations show increased dryness accompanying more widespread fire and forest die-off. These events punctuate gradual changes to ecosystems…
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Climate profoundly shapes forests. Forest species composition, productivity, availability of goods and services, disturbance regimes, and location on the landscape are all regulated by climate. Much research attention has focused on the problem of…
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Boreal forest fires are an important source of terrestrial carbon emissions, particularly during years of widespread wildfires. Most carbon emission models parameterize wildfire impacts and carbon flux to area burned by fires, therein making the…
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To investigate consequences of climate extreme and variability on agriculture and regional water resource, twenty-seven climatic indices of temperature and precipitation over Idaho, USA, were computed. Precipitation, mean temperature and maximum…
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This report is a scientific assessment of the current condition and likely future condition of forest resources in the United States relative to climatic variability and change. It serves as the U.S. Forest Service forest sector technical report for…
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Anthropogenic climate change is hypothesized to modify the spread of invasive annual grasses across the deserts of the western United States. The influence of climate change on future invasions depends on both climate suitability that defines a…
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Uphill shifts of species’ distributions in response to historical warming are well documented, which leads to widespread expectations of continued uphill shifts under future warming. Conversely, downhill shifts are often considered anomalous and…
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Climate change effects on wildfire occurrence have been attributed primarily to increases in temperatures causing earlier snowpack ablation and longer fire seasons. Variability in precipitation is also an important control on snowpack accumulation…
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This report synthesizes available fire history and climate change scientific knowledge to aid managers with fire decisions in the face of ongoing 21st Century climate change. Fire history and climate change (FHCC) have been ongoing for over 400…
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The widespread decrease in mountain snowpack across the Western United States is a hallmark indicator of regional climate change. Observed decreases in snowpack across lower-elevation watersheds are broadly consistent with model predictions of…
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Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might…
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Available air temperature models do not adequately account for the influence of terrain on nocturnal air temperatures. An empirical model for night time air temperatures was developed using a network of one hundred and forty inexpensive temperature…
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The physical science linking human-induced increases in greenhouse gasses to the warming of the global climate system is well established, but the implications of this warming for ecosystem processes and services at regional scales is still poorly…
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The purpose of this paper is to quantify climatic controls on the area burned by fire in different vegetation types in the western United States. We demonstrate that wildfire area burned (WFAB) in the American West was controlled by climate during…
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Phenology is the study of recurring life-cycle events, classic examples being the flowering of plants and animal migration. Phenological responses are increasingly relevant for addressing applied environmental issues. Yet, challenges remain with…
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Observed climate changes in the Western Mountains and Forests bioregion include increased seasonal, annual, minimum, and maximum temperatures, altered precipitation patterns, and a shift toward earlier timing of peak runoff. These climatic changes…
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Spatio-temporal patterns of temperature in mountain environments are complex due to both regional synoptic-scale and landscape-scale physiographic controls in these systems. Understanding the nature and magnitude of these physiographic effects has…
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Summertime cloud-to-ground lightning strikes are responsible for the majority of wildfire ignitions across vast sections of the seasonally dry western United States. In this study, a strong connection between active phases of the Madden–Julian…
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The Northern Rocky Mountains have sustained wildfire for centuries. Fires are widespread throughout the region during certain years, most recently in 2000, 2003, 2006, and 2007. However, until very recently there was little understanding of whether…
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