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An interdisciplinary agent-based multimodal wildfire evacuation model: critical decisions and life safety

Author(s): M. R. K. Siam, Haizhong Wang, Michael K. Lindell, Chen Chen, Eleni I. Vlahogianni, Kay Axhausen
Year Published: 2022
Description:

This article applies an interdisciplinary agent-based model (ABM) of wildfire evacuation to the devastating 2018 wildfire in Mati, Greece, where the second-deadliest wildfire of the 21st century took place. This model integrates the natural hazard system (wildfire propagation) with the sociotechnical response system comprising social (population response) and engineered (transportation network and shelter location) components. The research objective is to investigate the effects on wildfire casualties of the risk area population’s decisions about (1) whether to leave and how long to wait (i.e., departure time); (2) what transportation mode to use (e.g., walking or driving); and (3) how fast to travel. Analysis of several evacuation scenarios shows that the absence of children, multi-modal travel, staged evacuation, and increased shelter capacity lead to a more successful wildfire evacuation. These analyses can help emergency managers improve the effectiveness of their communities’ wildfire evacuation plans.

Citation: Siam, M. R.K.; Wang, Haizhong; Lindell, Michael K.; Chen, Chen; Vlahogianni, Eleni I.; Axhausen, Kay. 2022. An interdisciplinary agent-based multimodal wildfire evacuation model: critical decisions and life safety. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 103:103147. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2021.103147
Topic(s): Risk, Wildland Urban Interface
Ecosystem(s): None
Document Type: Book or Chapter or Journal Article
NRFSN number: 24193
FRAMES RCS number: 65152
Record updated: Feb 3, 2022