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On the complexity of fire dinamics at the wildland-urban interface

Author(s): Nadia Ursino
Year Published: 2021

Complexity is the main feature of many fire-prone environments, in which the fire regime is driven by climate and socio-economic development on short and long timescales. In this study, the interaction between social and forest environments is modelled for the first time by assimilating socio-economic assets to a new flammable species with its own dynamics. This is a completely new approach that offers a new perspective to interpret shifts in fire regimes. The ten-years fire regime trend observed in Italy between 1970 and 2018, according to the model results, may be attributed to a progressive change of land use and inhabited development. The introduction of a new species adds complexity to fire dynamics and modifies the self-regulating Mediterranean forest fire regime. The results evidence that the evolution of a mosaic of natural and man-managed tiles of land may erase the 'natural' chaotic fire regime, exacerbate fire frequency and increase fire risk in inhabited areas.

Citation: Ursino, Nadia. 2021. On the complexity of fire dinamics at the wildland-urban interface. Science of The Total Environment 755, part 2:142571. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.142571
Topic(s): Fire Behavior, Simulation Modeling, Wildland Urban Interface
Ecosystem(s): None
Document Type: Book or Chapter or Journal Article
NRFSN number: 22769
FRAMES RCS number: 62012
Record updated: Mar 9, 2021