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Nadia Ursino
Year Published:

Cataloging Information

Fire Behavior
Simulation Modeling
Wildland Urban Interface

NRFSN number: 22769
FRAMES RCS number: 62012
Record updated:

Complexity is the main feature of many fire-prone environments, in which the fire regime is driven by climate and socio-economic development on short and long timescales. In this study, the interaction between social and forest environments is modelled for the first time by assimilating socio-economic assets to a new flammable species with its own dynamics. This is a completely new approach that offers a new perspective to interpret shifts in fire regimes. The ten-years fire regime trend observed in Italy between 1970 and 2018, according to the model results, may be attributed to a progressive change of land use and inhabited development. The introduction of a new species adds complexity to fire dynamics and modifies the self-regulating Mediterranean forest fire regime. The results evidence that the evolution of a mosaic of natural and man-managed tiles of land may erase the 'natural' chaotic fire regime, exacerbate fire frequency and increase fire risk in inhabited areas.


Ursino, Nadia. 2021. On the complexity of fire dinamics at the wildland-urban interface. Science of The Total Environment 755, part 2:142571.

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