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Land managers need new tools for accounting for novel futures due to climate change. Species distribution modeling has been used extensively to predict future distributions of individual species under different climates, but the map products are too coarse for operational use and creating the suite of species projections needed for comprehensive land management is impossible due to lack of data and expertise. A new method for predicting ecosystem characteristics, which are germane to land management, into the future is detailed in this paper. Potential Vegetation Types (PVTs) were mapped using conventional statistical modeling techniques (Regression Forests) that use ecosystem process and climate variables as predictors. Then, future projections of climate are used to generate future PVT maps. All the vegetation attributes associated with categories in the PVT classification were then mapped using both the current and future PVT maps, and other ecological characteristics associated with the PVT categories were also mapped. Using this fast, inexpensive, and comprehensive alternative method, future maps of many ecological characteristics commonly used in land management can be easily created using the PVT associations.

Media Record Details

Jan 23, 2020
Robert E. Keane, Lisa M. Holsinger

Cataloging Information

Topic(s):
Fire & Climate
Mapping

NRFSN number: 20751
Record updated: