Home
A JFSP Fire Science Exchange Network
Bringing People Together & Sharing Knowledge in the Northern Rockies

Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes

Author(s): Owen D. Jones, Petter Nyman, Gary J. Sheridan
Year Published: 2014
Description:

Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous event. This process is sensitive to non-stationarity in fire and rainfall regime parameters and therefore suitable for evaluating the effects of climate change and strategic fire management on hydro-geomorphic hazards from burnt areas. In this paper we ask the question, ‘‘What is the firstorder effect of climate change on the interaction between fire disturbance and storms?’’ The aim is to isolate the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on the frequency of extreme erosion events. Fire disturbance and storms are represented as independent stochastic processes with properties of spatial extent, temporal duration, and frequency of occurrence, and used in a germ–grain model to quantify the annual area affected by extreme erosion events due to the intersection of fire disturbance and storms. The model indicates that the frequency of extreme erosion events will increase as a result of climate change, although regions with frequent storms were most sensitive.

Citation: Jones OD, Nyman P, and Sheridan GJ. 2014. Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, v. 28, no. 8, p. 2015-2025. 10.1007/s00477-014-0891-6.
Topic(s): Fire Effects, Ecological - First Order, Soil Heating, Ecological - Second Order, Soils
Ecosystem(s): None
Document Type: Book or Chapter or Journal Article
NRFSN number: 15758
TTRS (Tall Timbers Research Station) Number: 30721
Record updated: Nov 17, 2017