Skip to main content
Owen D. Jones, Petter Nyman, Gary J. Sheridan
Year Published:

Cataloging Information

Fire Effects
Ecological - First Order
Soil Heating
Ecological - Second Order

NRFSN number: 15758
TTRS number: 30721
Record updated:

Existing models of post-fire erosion have focused primarily on using empirical or deterministic approaches to predict the magnitude of response from catchments given some initial rainfall and burn conditions. These models are concerned with reducing uncertainties associated with hydro-geomorphic transfer processes and typically operate at event timescales. There have been relatively few attempts at modelling the stochastic interplay between fire disturbance and rainfall as factors which determine the frequency and severity with which catchments are conditioned (or primed) for a hazardous event. This process is sensitive to non-stationarity in fire and rainfall regime parameters and therefore suitable for evaluating the effects of climate change and strategic fire management on hydro-geomorphic hazards from burnt areas. In this paper we ask the question, ‘‘What is the firstorder effect of climate change on the interaction between fire disturbance and storms?’’ The aim is to isolate the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on the frequency of extreme erosion events. Fire disturbance and storms are represented as independent stochastic processes with properties of spatial extent, temporal duration, and frequency of occurrence, and used in a germ–grain model to quantify the annual area affected by extreme erosion events due to the intersection of fire disturbance and storms. The model indicates that the frequency of extreme erosion events will increase as a result of climate change, although regions with frequent storms were most sensitive.


Jones OD, Nyman P, and Sheridan GJ. 2014. Modelling the effects of fire and rainfall regimes on extreme erosion events in forested landscapes. Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, v. 28, no. 8, p. 2015-2025. 10.1007/s00477-014-0891-6.

Access this Document


publication access with no paywall

Check to see if this document is available for free in the USDA Forest Service Treesearch collection of publications. The collection includes peer reviewed publications in scientific journals, books, conference proceedings, and reports produced by Forest Service employees, as well as science synthesis publications and other products from Forest Service Research Stations.