The Wildfire Risk and Fuel Treatment Analysis Workshop was organized to build capacity in conducting wildfire risk assessments using the best tools and science available to inform fire and fuels management decisions. The workshop introduced risk framework concepts, steps, and recent applications from project to national scales to help forests and regional staff support local wildfire risk assessments. The workshop also gathered feedback from participants on needs for future wildfire risk assessments at all levels of the United States Department of Agriculture Forest Services (USDA FS).

The workshop was organized by USDA FS Washington Office Fire and Aviation Management (WO-FAM) Fuels and Fire Ecology group, with support from Rocky Mountain Research Station, Pyrologix LLC, USDA Pacific Northwest Research Station Western Wildland Environmental Threat Assessment Center (WWETAC), TEAMS enterprise unit, and FS Regions 1 and 5.

The workshop was attended by 38 participants. An additional 50+ people viewed a simulcast facilitated by the USFS Digital Visions enterprise unit. Participants represented all Forest Service Regions and specialize in fuels and fire planning, resource management, fire behavior analysis, and GIS; and representatives from Department of Interior Office of Wildland Fire and USDA Office of Inspector General.

The workshop builds on the methods outlined in the Wildfire Risk Assessment Framework for Land and Resource Management publication. Here, we include handouts and a risk assessment bibliography list. 

Workshop Agenda

 Workshop Introduction 

• Washington Office Fire and Aviation Management (FAM) Expectations and Goals (0-6:00) (Elizabeth Reinhardt, USFS WO-FAM)
• Two-way Learning (Laurie Kurth, USFS WO-FAM)
• How the Risk Assessment Fits into the Agency Mission (Dave Calkin, USFS RMRS & Frankie Romero, USFS WO-FAM)

Background to Wildfire Risk Analyses 

• Outline of the Basic Framework of Quantitivative Wildfire Risk Assessment and its Evolution to What it is Today (Joe Scott, Pyrologix LCC)
  Handout - Overview of the Risk Assessment Framework

• Hazard and Risk Terminology (Joe Scott, Pyrologix LCC)
  Handout - Glossary of Wildfire Hazard and Risk Terms

Background to Wildfire Risk Analyses 

• Outlining the Six Main Steps (Matt Thompson, USFS RMRS)

Core Elements and Methods Key to Risk and Fuel Treatment Planning and Analysis 

• Overview of the Steps (Joe Scott, Pyrologix LCC)
• Wildfire Simulation: Philosophy on and Reason for Fire Modeling & Introduction to Burn Probability Modeling (Karen Short, USFS RMRS)
• FSim Introduction, Components, & Differences between Static FlamMap Run and Stochastic Simulation (Karen Short, USFS RMRS)
• Stochastic Wildfire Simulation: Systems and Consideration (Don Helmbrecht, USFS TEAMS)

Core Elements and Methods Key to Risk and Fuel Treatment Planning and Analysis 

• Introduction: Focus on the Process (Phil Bowden, USFS R5 FAM)
• Characterizing Highly Valued Resources & Assets (HVRAs) (Phil Bowden, USFS R5 FAM)
• Exposure Analysis (Nicole Vaillant, USFS PNW)
• Effects Analysis (Joe Scott, Pyrologix LCC)
  Handout - Effects Analysis

Risk Calculation Tools 

• Kickoff (Joe Scott, Pyrologix LCC)
• IFTDSS (Erin Noonan-Wright, USFS RMRS & Caroline Noble, USFS RMRS)
• ArcFuels (Nicole Vaillant, USFS PNW)
• ArcGIS Scripts (Greg Dillon, USFS RMRS)
• FireNVC Risk Tool (Jessica Haas, USFS, RMRS)
• Wrap Up (Joe Scott, Pyrologix LCC)

Applications of the Risk Analyses: National, Regional, and Forest Case Studies 

• Using Risk-Based Information in Land and Resource Management Planning (Matt Thompson, USFS RMRS)
• Introduction of Case Studies (Matt Thompson, USFS RMRS)
• Case Study: National (Greg Dillon, USFS RMRS)
  Handout - National case study

• Case Study: Region 2 Fuels and Preparedness Budget Allocation (Jim Menakis, USFS WO-FAM, & Paul Langowski, Contractor)
  Handout - R2 case study - fuels and preparedness budget allocation

• Case Study: Region 3 Fuels Budget and Priorities (Jim Menakis, USFS WO-FAM, & Tessa Nicolet, USFS R3)
  Handout - R3 fuels case study - budget and priorities

• Case Study: Western Risk Assessments (David Buckley, Technosylva)
• Case Study: Southern Risk Assessments (David Buckley, Technosylva, & Curt Stripling, Texas A&M Forest Service)
• Case Study: Wildfire Risk Assessment Portal (WRAP) (David Buckley, Technosylva)
• Case Study: Deschutes National Forest (Nicole Vaillant, USFS PNW)
  Handout - Deschutes National Forest case study

 Applications of the Risk Analyses: Forest and Project Case Studies 

• Case Study: Southern Sierra Risk Assessment Forest Plan (Phil Bowden, USFS Region 5 FAM)
  Handout - Southern Sierra case study - risk assessment forest plan

• Case Study: Southern Sierra/Bridger-Teton Response of Vegetation to Fire (Don Helmbrecht, USFS TEAMS)
• Case Study: Island Park Sustainable Forest Community Fuel Treatment Planning (Don Helmbrecht, USFS TEAMS & Joe Scott, Pyrologix LCC)
• Case Study: Mt. Emily Fuel Treatment Tradeoffs (Nicole Vaillant, USFS PNW)
  Handout - Mt. Emily case study - fuel treatment tradeoffs

• Case Study: CFLR Projects Fuel Treatment Planning & R-CAT (Keith Stockmann, USFS R1)

 Time, Resources, and Data Demands 

• Fire Modeling (Don Helmbrecht, USFS TEAMS)
• HVRA Characterization (Julie Gilbertson-Day, Pyrologix LLC)
• Exposure and Effects Analysis (Julie Gilbertson-Day, Pyrologix LLC)
• Using Existing Products (Greg Dillon, USFS RMRS) 
  Handout - Existing Products
• Break-out Groups/What's Next? (Laurie Kurth, USFS WO-FAM & Workshop participants)
• Wrap-up and Closeout (Elizabeth Reinhardt, USFS WO-FAM)

 Additional Resources 

• Development and Application of a Geospatial Wildfire Exposure and Risk Calculation Tool
• A Wildfire Risk Assessment Framework for Land and Resource Management
• Risk Assessment Bibliography