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A JFSP Fire Science Exchange Network
Bringing People Together & Sharing Knowledge in the Northern Rockies

Fire Prediction

This subtopic includes mainly publications that explain important factors that must be considered when predicting fire behavior.

Past Events

Webinars/Videos

Fundamental research on how wildfires spread
May 2, 2017
Sara S. McAllister
Vortices and wildland fire
May 20, 2015
Scott L. Goodrick, Jason M. Forthofer
Effects of complex terrain on extreme fire behavior
Jan 27, 2015
Craig B. Clements, Neil Lareau
The fire lab
May 27, 2014
Mark A. Finney, Sara S. McAllister
Introduction to FlamMap5
Aug 9, 2012
Charles W. McHugh
WFDSS modeling and weather
Dec 8, 2011
Tom St. Clair

Syntheses

2012 Fuels and fire behavior dynamics in bark beetle-attacked forests in Western North America and implications for fire management
Michael J. Jenkins, Wesley G. Page, Elizabeth G. Hebertson, Martin E. Alexander
2011 Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: Volume 1 for managers
Paul A. Werth, Brian E. Potter, Craig B. Clements, Mark A. Finney, Scott L. Goodrick, Martin E. Alexander, Miguel G. Cruz, Jason M. Forthofer, Sara S. McAllister

Publications/Reports

2020 Exploring fire response to high wind speeds: fire rate of spread, energy release and flame residence time from fires burned in pine needle beds under winds up to 27 m s−1
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Bret W. Butler, Steve Quarles, Christine Standohar-Alfano, Murray Morrison, Daniel M. Jimenez, Paul Sopko, Cyle E. Wold, Larry S. Bradshaw, Loren Atwood, Justin Landon, Joseph J. O'Brien, Benjamin Hornsby, Natalie S. Wagenbrenner, Wesley G. Page
2020 Global fire season severity analysis and forecasting
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Leonardo N. Ferreira, Didier A. Vega-Oliveros, Liang Zhao, Manoel F. Cardoso, Elbert E.N. Macau
2020 Satellite hydrology observations as operational indicators of forecasted fire danger across the contiguous United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alireza Farahmand, E. Natasha Stavros, John T. Reager, Ali Behrangi, James T. Randerson, Brad Quayle
2019 The Vegetation Structure Perpendicular Index (VSPI): A forest condition index for wildfire predictions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Andrea Massetti, Christoph Rüdiger, Marta Yebra, J. E. Hilton
2019 Classification of potential fire outbreaks: a fuzzy modeling approach based on thermal images
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Maria João Sousa, Alexandra Moutinho, Miguel Almeida
2019 Modeling ground firefighting resource activities to manage risk given uncertain weather
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Erin J. Belval, Yu Wei, Michael Bevers
2018 Conditional Performance Evaluation: Using Wildfire Observations for Systematic Fire Simulator Development
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Thomas J. Duff, Jane G. Cawson, Brett Cirulis, Petter Nyman, Gary J. Sheridan, Kevin G. Tolhurst
2018 Pre‐fire drought and competition mediate post‐fire conifer mortality in western U.S. National Parks
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Phillip J. van Mantgem, Donald A. Falk, Emma C. Williams, Adrian J. Das, Nathan L. Stephenson
2018 Interactions between large high-severity fires and salvage logging on a short return interval reduce the regrowth of fire-prone serotinous forests
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Angela Taboada, Víctor Fernández-García, Elena Marcos, Leonor Calvo
2018 An improved non-equilibrium model for the ignition of living fuel
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
A. Lamorlette, M. El Houssami, D. Morvan
2017 An uncertainty analysis of wildfire modeling [Chapter 13]
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karen L. Riley, Matthew P. Thompson
2017 How to generate and interpret fire characteristics charts for the U.S. fire danger rating system
Technical Report or White Paper
Faith A. Heinsch, Patricia L. Andrews, D. A. Tirmenstein
2017 Qualitative flow visualization of flame attachment on slopes
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Torben Grumstrup, Sara S. McAllister, Mark A. Finney
2016 Predicting large wildfires across western North America by modeling seasonal variation in soil water balance
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Richard H. Waring, Nicholas C. Coops
2016 The net benefits of human-ignited wildfire forecasting: the case of tribal land units in the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jeffrey P. Prestemon, David T. Butry, Douglas S. Thomas
2016 Burning rates of wood cribs with implications for wildland fires
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sara S. McAllister, Mark A. Finney
2016 The effect of wind on burning rate of wood cribs
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sara S. McAllister, Mark A. Finney
2016 Near-term probabilistic forecast of significant wildfire events for the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Haiganoush K. Preisler, Karen L. Riley, Crystal S. Stonesifer, David E. Calkin, William Matt Jolly
2016 Weather, fuels, and topography impede wildland fire spread in western US landscapes
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Lisa M. Holsinger, Sean A. Parks, Carol Miller
2016 Autoignition of wood under combined convective and radiative heating
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sara S. McAllister, Mark A. Finney
2015 Deriving fundamental statistical shrub fuel models by laser scanning and combustion experimentation
Technical Report or White Paper
Carl A. Seielstad, Thomas H. Fletcher, David R. Weise
2015 Modeling spatial and temporal dynamics of wind flow and potential fire behavior following a mountain pine beetle outbreak in a lodgepole pine forest
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Chad M. Hoffman, Rodman Linn, Russell A. Parsons, Carolyn Hull Sieg, Judith Winterkamp
2015 Experimental analysis of fire spread across a two-dimensional ridge under wind conditions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
J. R. Raposo, S. Cabiddu, Domingos Xavier Viegas, M. Salis, J. Sharples
2014 Crown fire potential in lodgepole pine forests during the red stage of mountain pine beetle attack
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Wesley G. Page, Michael J. Jenkins, Martin E. Alexander
2014 Large wildfire trends in the western United States, 1984-2011
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Philip E. Dennison, Simon C. Brewer, James D. Arnold, Max A. Moritz
2014 Spectroscopic analysis of seasonal changes in live fuel moisture content and leaf dry mass
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Yi Qi, Philip E. Dennison, William Matt Jolly, Rachel C. Kropp, Simon C. Brewer
2014 Regional projections of the likelihood of very large wildland fires under a changing climate in the contiguous western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
E. Natasha Stavros, John T. Abatzoglou, Donald McKenzie, Narasimhan K. Larkin
2014 Impacts of mega-fires on large U.S. urban area air quality under changing climate and fuels
Technical Report or White Paper
Yongqiang Liu, Scott L. Goodrick, John A. Stanturf, Hanqin Tian
2013 Uncertainty associated with model predictions of surface and crown fire rates of spread
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Miguel G. Cruz, Martin E. Alexander
2013 Fuel Characteristic Classification System version 3.0: technical documentation
Technical Report or White Paper
Susan J. Prichard, David V. Sandberg, Roger D. Ottmar, Ellen Eberhardt, Anne Andreu, Paige C. Eagle, Kjell Swedin
2013 Crown fire behavior characteristics and prediction in conifer forests: a state-of-knowledge synthesis - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Synthesis, Technical Report or White Paper
Martin E. Alexander, Miguel G. Cruz, Nicole M. Vaillant, David L. Peterson
2013 Models for predicting fuel consumption in sagebrush-dominated ecosystems
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Clinton S. Wright
2013 The relationship of large fire occurrence with drought and fire danger indices in the western USA, 1984-2008: the role of temporal scale
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karen L. Riley, John T. Abatzoglou, Isaac C. Grenfell, Anna E. Klene, Faith A. Heinsch
2013 Surface fire intensity influences simulated crown fire behavior in lodgepole pine forests with recent mountain pine beetle-caused tree mortality
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Chad M. Hoffman, Penelope Morgan, William E. Mell, Russell A. Parsons, Eva K. Strand, Stephen Cook
2013 Angular variation of fire rate of spread
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jorge C. S. Andre, Joao C. Goncalves, Gilberto C. Vaz, Domingos Xavier Viegas
2012 On linking the impacts and effects of wildland fires to their behavior
Presentation Slides
Martin E. Alexander
2012 Modeling tree-level fuel connectivity to evaluate the effectiveness of thinning treatments for reducing crown fire potential
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Marco A. Contreras, Russell A. Parsons, Woodam Chung
2012 Fuels and fire behavior dynamics in bark beetle-attacked forests in Western North America and implications for fire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Michael J. Jenkins, Wesley G. Page, Elizabeth G. Hebertson, Martin E. Alexander
2012 Spatial variability in wildfire probability across the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Marc-Andre Parisien, Susan Snetsinger, Jonathan A. Greenberg, Cara R. Nelson, Tania L. Schoennagel, Solomon Z. Dobrowski, Max A. Moritz
2011 Synthesis of knowledge of extreme fire behavior: Volume 1 for managers
Synthesis, Technical Report or White Paper
Paul A. Werth, Brian E. Potter, Craig B. Clements, Mark A. Finney, Scott L. Goodrick, Martin E. Alexander, Miguel G. Cruz, Jason M. Forthofer, Sara S. McAllister
2011 A method for ensemble wildland fire simulation
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mark A. Finney, Isaac C. Grenfell, Charles W. McHugh, Robert C. Seli, D. Trethewey, Richard D. Stratton, Stuart Brittain
2011 Do mountain pine beetle outbreaks change the probability of active crown fire in lodgepole pine forests?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Martin Simard, William H. Romme, Jacob M. Griffin, Monica G. Turner
2009 Fuel treatment guidebook: illustrating treatment effects on fire hazard
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Crystal L. Raymond
2009 Seasonal predictions for wildland fire severity
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Shyh-Chin Chen, Haiganoush K. Preisler, Francis M. Fujioka, John W. Benoit, John O. Roads
2009 Seasonal predictions for wildland fire severity
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Shyh-Chin Chen, Haiganoush K. Preisler, Francis M. Fujioka, John W. Benoit, John O. Roads
2009 Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990-2007. 2: Empirical and quasi-empirical models
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Andrew L. Sullivan
2009 Wildland surface fire spread modelling, 1990-2007. 3: Simulation and mathematical analogue models
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Andrew L. Sullivan
2008 Temporal and spatial structure in a daily wildfire-start data set from the western United States (1986-96)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Patrick J. Bartlein, Steven W. Hostetler, Sarah L. Shafer, J. O. Holman, Allen M. Solomon
2007 Statistical model for forecasting monthly large wildfire events in the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Haiganoush K. Preisler, Anthony L. Westerling
2007 On the use of a firebrand generator to investigate the ignition of structures in wildland-urban interface (WUI) fires
Conference Proceedings
Anthony Manzello, John R. Shields, Jiann C. Yang, Yoshihiko Hayashi, Daisaku Nii
2007 Contingent pacific-atlantic ocean influence on multicentury wildfire synchrony over western North America
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Thomas Kitzberger, Peter M. Brown, Emily K. Heyerdahl, Thomas W. Swetnam, Thomas T. Veblen
2007 Predicted fire behavior in selected mountain pine beetle-infested lodgepole pine
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Wesley G. Page, Michael J. Jenkins
2007 Fuel consumption and flammability thresholds in shrub-dominated ecosystems - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Technical Report or White Paper
Clinton S. Wright, Roger D. Ottmar, Sue A. Ferguson, Robert E. Vihnanek
2007 Guide to fuel treatments in dry forests of the Western United States: assessing forest structure and fire hazard
Technical Report or White Paper
Morris C. Johnson, David L. Peterson, Crystal L. Raymond
2006 Employing numerical weather models to enhance fire weather and fire behavior predictions
Conference Proceedings
Joseph J. Charney, Lesley A. Fusina
2006 Is global warming causing more, larger wildfires?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Steven W. Running
2006 Interpreting fire behavior - powerpoint
Presentation Slides
U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service
2005 Evaluation of the Experimental Climate Prediction Center's fire danger forecasts with remote automated weather station observations
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Hauss J. Reinbold, John O. Roads, Timothy J. Brown
2004 MODIS Applications in 2003 Fire Management - Slide presentation
Conference Proceedings
C. A. Ryan, Bryce L. Nordgren, James P. Menakis, Mark A. Finney, Wei Min Hao
2004 A comment on models and modelling in fire/fuel management
Technical Report or White Paper
Martin E. Alexander
2003 Performance of the Haines Index during August 2000 for Montana
Conference Proceedings
Brian E. Potter, Scott L. Goodrick
2003 Climate and wildfire in the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anthony L. Westerling, Timothy J. Brown, Alexander Gershunov, Daniel R. Cayan, M. D. Dettinger
2003 Assessing the value of increased model resolution in forecasting fire danger
Conference Proceedings
Jeanne L. Hoadley, Miriam L. Rorig, Kenneth Westrick, Larry S. Bradshaw, Sue A. Ferguson, Scott L. Goodrick, Paul A. Werth
2003 Statistical forecasts of the 2003 western wildfire season using canonical correlation analysis
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anthony L. Westerling, Alexander Gershunov, Daniel R. Cayan
2003 Predicting surface winds in complex terrain for use in fire spread models
Conference Proceedings
Jason M. Forthofer, Bret W. Butler, Kyle S. Shannon, Mark A. Finney, Larry S. Bradshaw, Richard D. Stratton
2001 Statistical forecast of the 2001 western wildfire season using principal components regression
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anthony L. Westerling, Daniel R. Cayan, Alexander Gershunov, M. D. Dettinger, Timothy J. Brown
2000 The Mann Gulch Fire and the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System
Conference Proceedings
Martin E. Alexander
1998 Development of input data layers for the FARSITE fire growth model for the Selway-Bitterroot Wilderness Complex, USA
Technical Report or White Paper
Robert E. Keane, Janice L. Garner, Kirsten M. Schmidt, Donald G. Long, James P. Menakis, Mark A. Finney
1995 Intermountain West lightning-caused fires: climatic predictors of area burned
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Paul A. Knapp
1993 The evaluation of Idaho wildfire growth using the Haines Index
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Paul A. Werth, Richard Ochoa
1991 Predicting behavior and size of crown fires in the northern Rocky Mountains
Technical Report or White Paper
Richard C. Rothermel
1991 Predicting behavior of the 1988 Yellowstone fires: projections versus reality
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Richard C. Rothermel
1990 The Haines Index and Idaho fire growth
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Paul A. Werth, Richard Ochoa
1989 The relationship between mean monthly fire potential indices and monthly fire severity
Conference Proceedings
M. H. McCutchan, William A. Main
1988 Help with making crown fire hazard assessments
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Martin E. Alexander
1988 Help with making crown fire hazard assessments
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Martin E. Alexander
1986 Appraising fuels and flammability in western aspen: a prescribed fire guide
Technical Report or White Paper
James K. Brown, Dennis Simmerman
1985 Predicting duff and woody fuel consumed by prescribed fire in the Northern Rocky Mountains
Technical Report or White Paper
James K. Brown, Michael A. Marsden, Kevin C. Ryan, Elizabeth D. Reinhardt
1984 Changes in fire weather distributions: effects on predicted fire behavior
Technical Report or White Paper
Lucy A. Salazar, Larry S. Bradshaw
1982 Fuel and fire behavior prediction in big sagebrush
Technical Report or White Paper
James K. Brown
1980 Influence of harvesting and residues on fuels and fire management
Technical Report or White Paper
James K. Brown
1951 Fire behavior in Northern Rocky Mountain Forests
Technical Report or White Paper
Jack S. Barrows