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Author(s):
Rupert Seidl, Paulo M. Fernandes, Teresa Fidalgo Fonseca, François Gillet, Anna Maria Jönsson, Katarina Merganicova, Sigrid Netherer, A. Arpaci, Jean-Daniel Bontemps, Harald Bugmann, José Ramón González Olabarria, Petra Lasch, Céline Meredieu, Francisco Moreira, Mart Jan Schelhaas, G.M.J. Mohren
Year Published:

Cataloging Information

Topic(s):
Recovery after fire
Resilience

NRFSN number: 16851
TTRS number: 26002
Record updated:

Natural disturbances play a key role in ecosystem dynamics and are important factors for sustainable forest ecosystem management. Quantitative models are frequently employed to tackle the complexities associated with disturbance processes. Here we review the wide variety of approaches to modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems, addressing the full spectrum of disturbance modelling from single events to integrated disturbance regimes. We applied a general, process-based framework founded in disturbance ecology to analyze modelling approaches for drought, wind, forest fires, insect pests and ungulate browsing. Modelling approaches were reviewed by disturbance agent and mechanism, and a set of general disturbance modelling concepts was deduced. We found that although the number of disturbance modelling approaches emerging over the last 15 years has increased strongly, statistical concepts for descriptive modelling are still largely prevalent over mechanistic concepts for explanatory and predictive applications. Yet, considering the increasing importance of disturbances for forest dynamics and ecosystem stewardship under anthropogenic climate change, the latter concepts are crucial tool for understanding and coping with change in forest ecosystems. Current challenges for disturbance modelling in forest ecosystems are thus (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, (ii) to further a mechanistic foundation in disturbance modelling, (iii) to integrate multiple disturbance processes in dynamic ecosystem models for decision support in forest management, and (iv) to bring together scaling capabilities across several levels of organization with a representation of system complexity that captures the emergent behaviour of disturbance regimes.

Citation

Seidl R, Fernandes PM, Fonseca TF, Gillet F, Jönsson AM, Merganicova K, Netherer S, Arpaci A, Bontemps J-D, Bugmann H, González Olabarria JR, Lasch P, Meredieu C, Moreira F, Schelhaas MJ, Mohren GMJ. 2011. Modelling natural disturbances in forest ecosystems: a review. Ecological Modelling, v. 222, no. 4, p. 903-924.
DOI · 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2010.09.040

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