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Decision making under uncertainty: recommendations for the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS)

Author(s): Matthew P. Thompson
Editor(s): Robert E. Keane, William Matt Jolly, Russell A. Parsons, Karen L. Riley
Year Published: 2015
Description:

The management of wildfire is a dynamic, complex, and fundamentally uncertain enterprise. Fire managers face uncertainties regarding fire weather and subsequent influence on fire behavior, the effects of fire on socioeconomic and ecological resources, and the efficacy of alternative suppression actions on fire outcomes. In these types of difficult decision environments, even well-trained and experienced individuals can become susceptible to cognitive limitations and decision biases, as indicated by several recent analyses of fire manager decision making. This extended abstract focuses on fire management decision making under uncertainty, in relation to current decision support provided by the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS), offering several recommendations to improve decision content and process.

Citation: Thompson, M.P. 2015. Decision making under uncertainty: recommendations for the Wildland Fire Decision Support System (WFDSS). In: Keane, R.E.; Jolly, M.; Parsons, R.; Riley, K. Eds. Proceedings of the large wildland fires conference; May 19-23, 2014; Missoula, MT. Proc. RMRS-P-73. Fort Collins, CO: U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station. 345 p.
Topic(s): Human Dimensions of Fire Management, Organizational Effectiveness, Decisionmaking & Sensemaking, Risk, Strategic Risk
Ecosystem(s): None
Document Type: Book or Chapter or Journal Article
NRFSN number: 13947
Record updated: Jun 26, 2018