The ReSHAPE program is a major new effort to compile and collate fuel treatment data from federal and state agencies across the United States. What do these data say about treatment effects on wildfires? Are the treatments working? What does "working" even mean? And importantly, how can we move beyond "associated with" statements to "caused by" statements when randomized experiments are impossible? This talk explores these questions and more, and (hopefully) demystifies some of the statistics behind this work.