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Bringing People Together & Sharing Knowledge in the Northern Rockies

Risk assessment

This topic covers the process of evaluating potential risks that may be involved in a projected activity or undertaking, such as fire. It generally involves a combination of (1) identifying and analyzing potential events that may negatively impact individuals, assets, and/or the environment; and (2) making judgments about how much risk a person may be able to tolerate considering influencing factors.

Upcoming Events

None.

Past Events

None.

Webinars/Videos

Montana Wildfire Risk Assessment
Apr 28, 2020
Matt Hall, Joe H. Scott, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
Forest & Fire Learning Series: Moving Forward
Apr 15, 2020
Chad Kooistra, Alison Layman
Boundary-Spanning for Collective Action: Managing Wildfire Risk in the West
Feb 25, 2020
Emily Jane Davis, Tony S. Cheng, Darren McAvoy
Why use FSPro? Interview with Mark Finney
Nov 29, 2017
Mark A. Finney
Integrating community wildfire protection plans and natural hazard mitigation plans
Jun 23, 2017
Brett Holt, Amanda Siok, Susan Cleverley, Tyre Holfeltz
Wildfire risk assessment
Jun 3, 2015
Kevin Martin, Stephen Gage, David N. Seesholtz

Management/Planning Documents

2009 A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: case study of wildland fire management in the USA
Randall J. F. Bruins, Wayne R. Munns, Stephen J. Botti, Steve Brink, David Cleland, Larry Kapustka, Danny C. Lee, Valerie Luzadis, Laura Falk McCarthy, Naureen Rana, Douglas B. Rideout, Matthew G. Rollins, Peter Woodbury, Mike Zupko

Syntheses

2016 Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management
Stephen W. Golladay, Katherine L. Martin, James M. Vose, David N. Wear, Alan P. Covich, Richard J. Hobbs, Kier D. Klepzig, Gene E. Likens, Robert J. Naiman, Allan W. Shearer
2008 Managing fire risk in the forests of the U.S. inland Northwest: a classic "wicked problem" in public land policy
Matthew S. Carroll, Keith A. Blatner, Patricia J. Cohn, Charles E. Keegan, Todd A. Morgan

Publications/Reports

2020 Probability-based wildfire risk measure for decision-making
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Adán Rodríguez-Martínez, Begoña Vitoriano
2020 Modelling suppression difficulty: Current and future applications
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Francisco Rodriguez y Silva, Christopher D. O'Connor, Matthew P. Thompson, Juan Ramón Molina Martínez, David E. Calkin
2020 Weather, Risk, and Resource Orders on Large Wildland Fires in the Western US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jude Bayham, Erin J. Belval, Matthew P. Thompson, Christopher J. Dunn, Crystal S. Stonesifer, David E. Calkin
2020 Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher J. Dunn, Christopher D. O'Connor, Jesse Abrams, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, James D. Johnstone, Richard D. Stratton, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2020 Support for regulatory and voluntary approaches to wildfire adaptation among unincorporated wildland-urban interface communities
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Catrin Edgeley, Travis B. Paveglio, Daniel R. Williams
2020 The Path to Strategic Wildland Fire Management Planning
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Richard D. Stratton
2020 Fostering collective action to reduce wildfire risk across property boundaries in the American West
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Susan Charnley, Erin C. Kelly, A. Paige Fischer
2020 Wildfires in the wildland-urban interface: key concepts and evaluation methodologies
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
A. Bento-Gonçalves, A. Vieira
2020 Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Brett Cirulis, Hamish G. Clarke, Matthias M. Boer, Trent D. Penman, Owen F. Price, Ross A. Bradstock
2020 Exploring the impact of resident proximity to wildfires in the northern Rocky Mountains: perceptions of climate change risks, drought, and policy
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher A. Craig, Myria W. Allen, Song Feng, Matthew L. Spialek
2020 A framework for prioritising prescribed burning on public land in western Australia
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Trevor Howard, Neil D. Burrows, Tony Smith, Glen Daniel, Lachlan McCaw
2019 Pathways of change: predicting the effects of fire on flammability
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Trent D. Penman
2019 Archetypes of community wildfire exposure from national forests of the western US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Cody Evers, Alan A. Ager, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Ken Bunzel
2019 Modeling the cost effectiveness of fire protection resource allocation in the United States: models and a 1980-2014 case study
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Adam Behrendt, Vineet M. Payyappalli, Jun Zhuang
2019 Turning down the heat: vegetation feedbacks limit fire regime responses to global warming
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jean Marchal, Steve G. Cumming, Eliot J. B. McIntire
2019 Near-future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Polly C. Buotte, Samuel Levis, Beverly E. Law, Tara W. Hudiburg, David E. Rupp, Jeffrey J. Kent
2019 Determinants of perceived risk and liability concerns associated with prescribed burning in the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Omkar Joshi, Neelam C. Poudyal, John R. Weir, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf, Thomas O. Ochuodho
2019 Thermal characterization of firebrand piles
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Raquel S. P. Hakes, Hamed Salehizadeh, Matthew J. Weston-Dawkes, Michael J. Gollner
2019 Designing operationally relevant daily large fire containment strategies using risk assessment results
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Yu Wei, Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Christopher D. O'Connor, Christopher J. Dunn
2019 Interagency Standards for Fire and Fire Aviation Operations
Technical Report or White Paper
Interagency Standards for Fire and Fire Aviation Operations Group
2019 Modelling the fire propagation from the fuel bed to the lower canopy of ornamental species used in wildland–urban interfaces
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
L. Terrei, Aymeric Lamorlette, Anne Ganteaume
2019 Spatial and temporal assessment of responder exposure to snag hazards in post-fire environments
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher J. Dunn, Christopher D. O'Connor, Matthew J. Reilly, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2019 Tradeoffs between US national forest harvest targets and fuel management to reduce wildfire transmission to the wildland urban interface
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Rachel M. Houtman, Michelle A. Day, Chris Ringo, Palaiologos Palaiologou
2019 Deriving forest fire probability maps from the fusion of visible/infrared satellite data and geospatial data mining
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Prashant K. Srivastava, George P. Petropoulos, Manika Gupta, Sudhir K. Singh, Tanvir Islam, Dimitra Loka
2019 Severe Fire Danger Index: A Forecastable Metric to Inform Firefighter and Community Wildfire Risk Management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
William Matt Jolly, Patrick H. Freeborn, Wesley G. Page, Bret W. Butler
2019 Engaging the fire before it starts: A case study from the 2017 Pinal Fire (Arizona)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher D. O'Connor, David E. Calkin
2019 Interactions between Resident Risk Perceptions and Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Evidence from Simultaneous Equations Modeling
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James R. Meldrum, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Patricia A. Champ, Jamie Gomez, Lilia C. Falk, Christopher M. Barth
2019 Risk factor as a strategy to validate the prioritization of areas for wildfire protection
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
José G. Flores Garnica, Alejandra Macías, Uri D. Casillas
2019 Fine scale assessment of cross boundary wildfire events in the Western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle A. Day, Haiganoush K. Preisler
2019 Perception and management of sociopolitical risks on large fires
Conference Proceedings
Armando Gonzalez-Caban, Donald G. MacGregor
2019 Impacts of wildland fire effects on resources and assets through expert elicitation to support fire response decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Colin B. McFayden, Den Boychuk, Douglas G. Woolford, Melanie J. Wheatley, Lynn Johnston
2016 Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Stephen W. Golladay, Katherine L. Martin, James M. Vose, David N. Wear, Alan P. Covich, Richard J. Hobbs, Kier D. Klepzig, Gene E. Likens, Robert J. Naiman, Allan W. Shearer
2016 Is seeing believing? Perceptions of wildfire risk over time
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Patricia A. Champ, Hannah Brenkert-Smith
2015 Wildland fire management futures: Insights from a foresight panel - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Technical Report or White Paper
Robert L. Olson, David N. Bengston, Leif A. DeVaney, Trevor A.C. Thompson
2015 Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Jessica R. Haas, Mark A. Finney, David E. Calkin, Michael S. Hand, Mark J. Browne, Martin Halek, Karen C. Short, Isaac C. Grenfell
2015 Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Jeffrey D. Kline, A. Paige Fischer
2015 Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Patricia A. Champ, Katherine L. Dickinson, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Nicholas Flores
2015 Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents and wildfire professionals
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James R. Meldrum, Patricia A. Champ, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Travis Warziniack, Christopher M. Barth, Lilia C. Falk
2015 Emerging concepts in wildfire risk assessment and management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joe H. Scott, Matthew P. Thompson
2014 Risk savvy: how to make good decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Gerd Gigerenzer
2014 Understanding stochastic wildfire simulation results
Technical Report or White Paper
Joe H. Scott
2014 Assessing the expected effects of wildfire on vegetation condition on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA
Technical Report or White Paper
Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Matthew P. Thompson
2014 Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service’s 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook in the western USA
Conference Proceedings
Karen L. Riley, Crystal S. Stonesifer, Haiganoush K. Preisler, David E. Calkin
2013 A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management
Technical Report or White Paper
Joe H. Scott, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
2013 Assessing watershed-wildfire risks on national forest system lands in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Paul G. Langowski, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Jessica R. Haas, Elise M. Bowne
2013 Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, David E. Calkin
2013 Analyzing the transmission of wildfire exposure on a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Mark A. Finney, Ken W. Vance-Borland, Nicole M. Vaillant
2013 Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Charles W. McHugh, Karen C. Short, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Mark A. Finney, David E. Calkin
2013 How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, Jack D. Cohen, Mark A. Finney, Matthew P. Thompson
2013 A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Jeffrey D. Kaiden, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2013 A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into wildland urban interface risk assessments within the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jessica R. Haas, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2013 Simulating effects of land use policies on extent of the wildland urban interface and wildfire risk in Flathead County, Montana
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Travis B. Paveglio, Tony Prato, Michael Hardy
2013 Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Kevin D. Hyde, Matthew B. Dickinson, Gil Bohrer, David E. Calkin, Louisa Evers, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Tessa Nicolet, Kevin C. Ryan, Christina Tague
2012 Quantifying the threat of unsuppressed wildfires reaching the adjacent wildland-urban interface on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Sean A. Parks, Carol Miller
2012 Wildland Fire Management Decision Making
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Tom Zimmerman
2012 Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Kate Marcille
2011 A real-time risk assessment tool supporting wildland fire decisionmaking
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson, Mark A. Finney, Kevin D. Hyde
2011 Primer on risk analysis: decision making under uncertainty
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Charles Yoe
2011 Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Alan A. Ager
2011 Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Robyn S. Wilson, Patricia L. Winter, Lynn A. Maguire, Timothy Ascher
2011 A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mark A. Finney, Charles W. McHugh, Isaac C. Grenfell, Karen L. Riley, Karen C. Short
2011 Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Mark A. Finney, Alan A. Ager, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2011 Developing the U.S. Wildland Fire Decision Support System
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Erin Noonan-Wright, Tonja S. Opperman, Mark A. Finney, Tom Zimmerman, Robert C. Seli, Lisa M. Elenz, David E. Calkin, John R. Fiedler
2011 Analyzing wildfire exposure and source-sink relationships on a fire prone forest landscape
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Nicole M. Vaillant, Mark A. Finney, Haiganoush K. Preisler
2011 The Wildland Fire Decision Support System: Integrating science, technology, and fire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Morgan Pence, Tom Zimmerman
2010 Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation
Technical Report or White Paper
David E. Calkin, Alan A. Ager, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2010 Evaluating wildland fire danger and prioritizing vegetation and fuels treatments
Technical Report or White Paper
Paul F. Hessburg, Keith M. Reynolds, Robert E. Keane, Kevin M. James, R. Brion Salter
2009 Risk management - principles and guidelines
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Geneva Switzerland International organization for standardization
2009 Science and decisions: advancing risk assessment
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
National Research Council
2009 A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: case study of wildland fire management in the USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Management or Planning Document
Randall J. F. Bruins, Wayne R. Munns, Stephen J. Botti, Steve Brink, David Cleland, Larry Kapustka, Danny C. Lee, Valerie Luzadis, Laura Falk McCarthy, Naureen Rana, Douglas B. Rideout, Matthew G. Rollins, Peter Woodbury, Mike Zupko
2008 Managing fire risk in the forests of the U.S. inland Northwest: a classic "wicked problem" in public land policy
Conference Proceedings, Synthesis, Technical Report or White Paper
Matthew S. Carroll, Keith A. Blatner, Patricia J. Cohn, Charles E. Keegan, Todd A. Morgan
2008 Managing fire risk in the forests of the U.S. inland Northwest: a classic "wicked problem" in public land policy
Conference Proceedings, Synthesis, Technical Report or White Paper
Matthew S. Carroll, Keith A. Blatner, Patricia J. Cohn, Charles E. Keegan, Todd A. Morgan
2007 Improving wildfire preparedness: lessons from communities across the US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Pamela J. Jakes, Linda E. Kruger, Martha C. Monroe, Kristen C. Nelson, Victoria Sturtevant
2005 Predicting risks of uncharacteristic wildfires: application of the risk assessment process
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anne Fairbrother, Jessica G. Turnley
2005 The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mark A. Finney
2004 Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Haiganoush K. Preisler, David R. Brillinger, Robert E. Burgan, John W. Benoit
2003 The spatial context of fire: a new approach for predicting fire occurrence
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Carol Miller
2003 The spatial context of fire: a new approach for predicting fire occurrence
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Carol Miller
2000 Preventing disaster: home ignitability in the wildland-urban interface
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jack D. Cohen
2000 Sequential use of simulation and optimization in analysis and planning
Conference Proceedings
Hans R. Zuuring, Jimmie D. Chew, J. Greg Jones
2000 An overview of the fire and fuels extension to the forest vegetation simulator
Conference Proceedings
Sarah J. Beukema, Elizabeth D. Reinhardt, Werner A. Kurz, Nicholas L. Crookston
1999 Applying simulation and optimization to plan fuel treatments at landscape scales
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
J. Greg Jones, Jimmie D. Chew, Hans R. Zuuring
1999 Applying simulation and optimization to plan fuel treatments at landscape scales
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
J. Greg Jones, Jimmie D. Chew, Hans R. Zuuring
1990 Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion
1989 Decision traps: the ten barriers to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
J. Edward Russo, Paul J. H. Schoemaker