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Bringing People Together & Sharing Knowledge in the Northern Rockies

Risk

Risk is the potential for uncontrolled loss of something of value. Risk can also be defined as the intentional interaction with uncertainty. Uncertainty is a potential, unpredictable, and uncontrollable outcome; risk is an aspect of action taken in spite of uncertainty (Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Risk). This topic has four subtopics to address specific types of risk in fire. The four subtopics are general risk assessment, strategic risk, operational risk, and risks specific to the wildland urban interface (WUI). These four subtopics are described individually.

Webinars/Videos

Exposure Analysis in IFTDSS
May 28, 2020
Jennifer Anderson, Chris Boldman
Using the Wildfire Risk to Communities Website
May 21, 2020
Gregory K. Dillon, Frank Fay, Kelly Pohl
Montana Wildfire Risk Assessment
Apr 28, 2020
Matt Hall, Joe H. Scott, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
Forest & Fire Learning Series: Moving Forward
Apr 15, 2020
Chad Kooistra, Alison Layman
Forest & Fire Learning Series: Moving Forward
Apr 15, 2020
Chad Kooistra, Alison Layman
Boundary-Spanning for Collective Action: Managing Wildfire Risk in the West
Feb 25, 2020
Emily Jane Davis, Tony S. Cheng, Darren McAvoy
Spatial Tools for Wildfire Risk Assessment
Mar 1, 2018
Gregory K. Dillon
Climate, Megafires, and Conservation Financing
Dec 11, 2017
Cynthia West, Shawna Legarza, William Matt Jolly, Jacqueline Emanuel, Zach Knight
Why use FSPro? Interview with Mark Finney
Nov 29, 2017
Mark A. Finney
Integrating Natural Hazard Mitigation Plans into Local Comprehensive Plans
Nov 17, 2017
Jay Wilson, Molly Mowery, Brett Holt, Amanda Siok
Developing an Effective Mitigation Strategy
Jul 28, 2017
Brett Holt, Patty Perry, Greg Adams
Integrating community wildfire protection plans and natural hazard mitigation plans
Jun 23, 2017
Brett Holt, Amanda Siok, Susan Cleverley, Tyre Holfeltz
Risk, resilience, and the fire management system
Mar 2, 2017
Matthew P. Thompson
Wildfire risk assessment
Jun 3, 2015
Kevin Martin, Stephen Gage, David N. Seesholtz
2014 WFSTAR: Fireline Leadership
Apr 24, 2014
Chris Wilcox, Heath Cota, Stanley McCrystal

Management/Planning Documents

2009 A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: case study of wildland fire management in the USA
Randall J. F. Bruins, Wayne R. Munns, Stephen J. Botti, Steve Brink, David Cleland, Larry Kapustka, Danny C. Lee, Valerie Luzadis, Laura Falk McCarthy, Naureen Rana, Douglas B. Rideout, Matthew G. Rollins, Peter Woodbury, Mike Zupko

Syntheses

2016 Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management
Stephen W. Golladay, Katherine L. Martin, James M. Vose, David N. Wear, Alan P. Covich, Richard J. Hobbs, Kier D. Klepzig, Gene E. Likens, Robert J. Naiman, Allan W. Shearer
2011 Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
2008 Managing fire risk in the forests of the U.S. inland Northwest: a classic "wicked problem" in public land policy
Matthew S. Carroll, Keith A. Blatner, Patricia J. Cohn, Charles E. Keegan, Todd A. Morgan

Publications/Reports

2020 Wildfires in the wildland-urban interface: key concepts and evaluation methodologies
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
A. Bento-Gonçalves, A. Vieira
2020 Modelling suppression difficulty: Current and future applications
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Francisco Rodriguez y Silva, Christopher D. O'Connor, Matthew P. Thompson, Juan Ramón Molina Martínez, David E. Calkin
2020 Reducing wooden structure and wildland-urban interface fire disaster risk through dynamic risk assessment and management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Torgrim Log, Vigdis Vandvik, Liv G. Velle, Maria-Monika Metallinou
2020 Estimation of surface dead fine fuel moisture using automated fuel moisture sticks across a range of forests worldwide
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jane G. Cawson, Petter Nyman, Christian Schunk, Gary J. Sheridan, Thomas J. Duff, Kelsy E. Gibos, William D. Bovill, Marco Conedera, Gianni B. Pezzatti, Annette Menzel
2020 Mapping forest canopy fuels in the western United States with LiDAR-Landsat Covariance
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher J. Moran, Van R. Kane, Carl A. Seielstad
2020 Corrigendum to: Estimation of surface dead fine fuel moisture using automated fuel moisture sticks across a range of forests worldwide
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jane G. Cawson, Petter Nyman, Christian Schunk, Gary J. Sheridan, Thomas J. Duff, Kelsy E. Gibos, William D. Bovill, Marco Conedera, Gianni B. Pezzatti, Annette Menzel
2020 If you love it, let it go: the role of home attachment in wildfire evacuation decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Hugh D. Walpole, Robyn S. Wilson, Sarah M. McCaffrey
2020 Finding common ground: agreement on increasing wildfire risk crosses political lines
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joel Hartter, Lawrence C. Hamilton, Mark J. Ducey, Angela Boag, Jonathan D. Salerno, Nils D. Christoffersen, Paul T. Oester, Michael W. Palace, Forrest R. Stevens
2020 After the fire: Perceptions of land use planning to reduce wildfire risk in eight communities across the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Miranda H. Mockrin, Hilary Fishler, Susan I. Stewart
2020 Compounded heat and fire risk for future U.S. populations
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Brice B. Hanberry
2020 Weather, Risk, and Resource Orders on Large Wildland Fires in the Western US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jude Bayham, Erin J. Belval, Matthew P. Thompson, Christopher J. Dunn, Crystal S. Stonesifer, David E. Calkin
2020 Quantification of inter-regional differences in risk mitigation from prescribed burning across multiple management values
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Brett Cirulis, Hamish G. Clarke, Matthias M. Boer, Trent D. Penman, Owen F. Price, Ross A. Bradstock
2020 Wildfire risk science facilitates adaptation of fire-prone social-ecological systems to the new fire reality
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher J. Dunn, Christopher D. O'Connor, Jesse Abrams, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, James D. Johnstone, Richard D. Stratton, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2020 Exploring the impact of resident proximity to wildfires in the northern Rocky Mountains: perceptions of climate change risks, drought, and policy
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher A. Craig, Myria W. Allen, Song Feng, Matthew L. Spialek
2020 Support for regulatory and voluntary approaches to wildfire adaptation among unincorporated wildland-urban interface communities
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Catrin Edgeley, Travis B. Paveglio, Daniel R. Williams
2020 A framework for prioritising prescribed burning on public land in western Australia
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Trevor Howard, Neil D. Burrows, Tony Smith, Glen Daniel, Lachlan McCaw
2020 Measuring acute pulmonary responses to occupational wildland fire smoke exposure using exhaled breath condensate
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Chieh-Ming Wu, Anna M. Adetona, Chi Song, Luke P. Naeher, Olorunfemi Adetona
2020 The Path to Strategic Wildland Fire Management Planning
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Richard D. Stratton
2020 Fostering collective action to reduce wildfire risk across property boundaries in the American West
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Susan Charnley, Erin C. Kelly, A. Paige Fischer
2020 Probability-based wildfire risk measure for decision-making
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Adán Rodríguez-Martínez, Begoña Vitoriano
2019 Deriving forest fire probability maps from the fusion of visible/infrared satellite data and geospatial data mining
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Prashant K. Srivastava, George P. Petropoulos, Manika Gupta, Sudhir K. Singh, Tanvir Islam, Dimitra Loka
2019 Modeling ground firefighting resource activities to manage risk given uncertain weather
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Erin J. Belval, Yu Wei, Michael Bevers
2019 Fire risk in revegetated bunchgrass communities infested with Bromus tectorum
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Steven O. Link, Randal W. Hill, Sheel Bansal
2019 Pathways of change: predicting the effects of fire on flammability
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sarah C. McColl-Gausden, Trent D. Penman
2019 Living with wildfire in Archeluta County, Colorado: 2015 data report
Technical Report or White Paper
James R. Meldrum, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Pamela Wilson, Patricia A. Champ, Christopher M. Barth, Angela Boag
2019 Forest fire induced Natech risk assessment: a survey of geospatial technologies
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mohsen Naderpour, Hossein Mojaddadi Rizeei, Nima Khakzad, Biswajeet Pradhan
2019 Archetypes of community wildfire exposure from national forests of the western US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Cody Evers, Alan A. Ager, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Ken Bunzel
2019 A review of the applications of remote sensing in fire ecology
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David M. Szpakowski, Jennifer L. Rooker Jensen
2019 Modeling the cost effectiveness of fire protection resource allocation in the United States: models and a 1980-2014 case study
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Adam Behrendt, Vineet M. Payyappalli, Jun Zhuang
2019 Rethinking resilience to wildfire
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Dave McWethy, Tania L. Schoennagel, Philip E. Higuera, Meg A. Krawchuk, Brian J. Harvey, Elizabeth C. Metcalf, Courtney Schultz, Carol Miller, Alexander L. Metcalf, Brian Buma, Arika Virapongse, Judith C. Kulig, Richard C. Stedman, Zakary Ratajczak, Cara R. Nelson, Crystal A. Kolden
2019 Applications of simulation-based burn probability modelling: a review
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Marc-Andre Parisien, Denyse A. Dawe, Carol Miller, Christopher A. Stockdale, O. Bradley Armitage
2019 Near-future forest vulnerability to drought and fire varies across the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Polly C. Buotte, Samuel Levis, Beverly E. Law, Tara W. Hudiburg, David E. Rupp, Jeffrey J. Kent
2019 Severe Fire Danger Index: A Forecastable Metric to Inform Firefighter and Community Wildfire Risk Management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
William Matt Jolly, Patrick H. Freeborn, Wesley G. Page, Bret W. Butler
2019 Measuring Initial Attack Suppression Effectiveness through Burn Probability
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jonathan Reimer, Dan K. Thompson, Nicholas A. Povak
2019 Determinants of perceived risk and liability concerns associated with prescribed burning in the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Omkar Joshi, Neelam C. Poudyal, John R. Weir, Samuel D. Fuhlendorf, Thomas O. Ochuodho
2019 Interactions between Resident Risk Perceptions and Wildfire Risk Mitigation: Evidence from Simultaneous Equations Modeling
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James R. Meldrum, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Patricia A. Champ, Jamie Gomez, Lilia C. Falk, Christopher M. Barth
2019 Thermal characterization of firebrand piles
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Raquel S. P. Hakes, Hamed Salehizadeh, Matthew J. Weston-Dawkes, Michael J. Gollner
2019 Fine scale assessment of cross boundary wildfire events in the Western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle A. Day, Haiganoush K. Preisler
2019 Risk management and analytics in wildfire response
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Yu Wei, David E. Calkin, Christopher D. O'Connor, Christopher J. Dunn, Nathaniel M. Anderson, John S. Hogland
2019 Designing operationally relevant daily large fire containment strategies using risk assessment results
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Yu Wei, Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Christopher D. O'Connor, Christopher J. Dunn
2019 Forest Fire Susceptibility and Risk Mapping Using Social/Infrastructural Vulnerability and Environmental Variables
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Omid Ghorbanzadeh, Thomas Blaschke, Khalil Gholamnia, Jagannath Aryal
2019 Interagency Standards for Fire and Fire Aviation Operations
Technical Report or White Paper
Interagency Standards for Fire and Fire Aviation Operations Group
2019 Forest Service fire management and the elusiveness of change
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Courtney Schultz, Matthew P. Thompson, Sarah M. McCaffrey
2019 Wildfire exposure to the wildland urban interface in the western US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Chris Ringo, Karen C. Short
2019 Turning down the heat: vegetation feedbacks limit fire regime responses to global warming
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jean Marchal, Steve G. Cumming, Eliot J. B. McIntire
2019 Dynamic wildfire navigation system
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mitsuhiro Ozaki, Jagannath Aryal, Paul Fox-Hughes
2019 A social-ecological network approach for understanding wildfire risk governance
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew Hamilton, A. Paige Fischer, Alan A. Ager
2019 Modelling the fire propagation from the fuel bed to the lower canopy of ornamental species used in wildland–urban interfaces
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
L. Terrei, Aymeric Lamorlette, Anne Ganteaume
2019 Fine-scale assessment of cross-boundary wildfire events in the western United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Palaiologos Palaiologou, Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus, Michelle A. Day, Haiganoush K. Preisler
2019 Tradeoffs between US national forest harvest targets and fuel management to reduce wildfire transmission to the wildland urban interface
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Rachel M. Houtman, Michelle A. Day, Chris Ringo, Palaiologos Palaiologou
2019 Could restoration of a landscape to a pre‐European historical vegetation condition reduce burn probability?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher A. Stockdale, Neal McLoughlin, Michael D. Flannigan, Ellen Macdonald
2019 Beyond ICS: how should we govern complex disasters in the United States?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Branda Nowell, Toddi A. Steelman
2019 Stakeholder perceptions and scientific evidence linking wildfire mitigation treatments to societal outcomes
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Ryan M. Roberts, Kelly W. Jones, Esther Duke, Xoco Shinbrot, Erin E. Harper, Erin Fons, Anthony S. Cheng, Brett Wolk
2019 Impacts of wildland fire effects on resources and assets through expert elicitation to support fire response decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Colin B. McFayden, Den Boychuk, Douglas G. Woolford, Melanie J. Wheatley, Lynn Johnston
2019 Engaging the fire before it starts: A case study from the 2017 Pinal Fire (Arizona)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher D. O'Connor, David E. Calkin
2019 Cross-boundary wildfire and community exposure: A framework and application in the western U.S.
Technical Report or White Paper
Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Palaiologos Palaiologou, Rachel M. Houtman, Chris Ringo, Cody Evers
2019 Understanding homeowners' decisions to mitigate wildfire risk and create defensible space
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Angelo M. Sisante, Michael H. Taylor, Kimberly Rollins
2019 Risk factor as a strategy to validate the prioritization of areas for wildfire protection
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
José G. Flores Garnica, Alejandra Macías, Uri D. Casillas
2019 Spatial and temporal assessment of responder exposure to snag hazards in post-fire environments
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher J. Dunn, Christopher D. O'Connor, Matthew J. Reilly, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2019 Perception and management of sociopolitical risks on large fires
Conference Proceedings
Armando Gonzalez-Caban, Donald G. MacGregor
2018 Spatial optimization of operationally relevant large fire confine and point protection strategies: Model development and test cases
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Yu Wei, Matthew P. Thompson, Jessica R. Haas, Gregory K. Dillon, Christopher D. O'Connor
2018 A model-based framework to evaluate alternative wildfire suppression strategies
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karen L. Riley, Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2018 Human-related ignitions concurrent with high winds promote large wildfires across the USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
John T. Abatzoglou, Jennifer Balch, Bethany A. Bradley, Crystal A. Kolden
2018 Wildfire risk reduction in the United States: Leadership staff perceptions of local fire department roles and responsibilities
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Rachel S. Madsen, Hylton J. G. Haynes, Sarah M. McCaffrey
2018 Incorporating social diversity into wildfire management: proposing 'pathways' for fire adaptation
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Travis B. Paveglio, Matthew S. Carroll, Amanda M. Stasiewicz, Daniel R. Williams, Dennis Becker
2018 Where wildfires destroy buildings in the US relative to the wildland-urban interface and national fire outreach programs
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Heather A. Kramer, Miranda H. Mockrin, Patricia M. Alexandre, Susan I. Stewart, Volker C. Radeloff
2018 Social Factors in Wildland Fire
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David Martín Gallego, Eduard Plana Bach, Domingo Molina Terrén
2018 Values of the public at risk of wildfire and its management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Kathryn J. Williams, Rebecca M. Ford, Andrea Rawluk
2018 Wildfire risk mitigation: Local solutions to a national problem
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jonathan Bruno
2018 Collaboration across boundaries: a policy perspective on the state of wildland fire
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Vicki Christiansen
2018 Responding to risky neighbors: Testing for spatial spillover effects for defensible space in a fire-prone WUI community
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Travis Warziniack, Patricia A. Champ, James R. Meldrum, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Christopher M. Barth, Lilia C. Falk
2018 Guidelines for risk management in forest planning — what is risk and when is risk management useful?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Kyle Eyvindson, Annika Kangas
2017 Risk aversion and risk seeking in multicriteria forest management: a Markov decision process approach
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joseph Buongiorno, Mo Zhou, Craig Johnston
2017 Network analysis of wildfire transmission and implications for risk governance
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Cody Evers, Michelle A. Day, Haiganoush K. Preisler, Ana M. G. Barros, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus
2017 Uncertainty and probability in wildfire management decision support: An example from the United States [Chapter 4]
Technical Report or White Paper
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Joe H. Scott, Michael S. Hand
2017 Examining the influence of biophysical conditions on wildland-urban interface homeowners' wildfire risk mitigation activities in fire-prone landscapes
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christine Olsen, Jeffrey D. Kline, Alan A. Ager, Keith A. Olsen, Karen C. Short
2017 Towards enhanced risk management: planning, decision making and monitoring of US wildfire response
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher J. Dunn, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2017 A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to human and natural systems
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Francois-Nicolas Robinne, Kevin D. Bladon, Carol Miller, Marc-Andre Parisien, Jerome Mathieu, Michael D. Flannigan
2017 An empirical machine learning method for predicting potential fire control locations for pre-fire planning and operational fire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher D. O'Connor, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2017 Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis [Chapter 2]
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Jord J. Warmink
2017 Uncertainty in natural hazards, modeling and decision support: An introduction to this volume [Chapter 1]
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karen L. Riley, Matthew P. Thompson, Peter Webley, Kevin D. Hyde
2017 Interacting effects of topography, vegetation, human activities and wildland-urban interfaces on wildfire ignition risk
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
María Calviño-Cancela, María L. Chas-Amil, Eduardo D. García-Martínez, Julia Touza
2017 A framework for developing safe and effective large-fire response in a new fire management paradigm
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher J. Dunn, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
2017 A review of challenges to determining and demonstrating efficiency of large fire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Francisco Rodriguez y Silva, David E. Calkin, Michael S. Hand
2017 Natural hazard modeling and uncertainty analysis (Chapter 2)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Jord J. Warmink
2017 Is the whole greater than the sum of its parts? Homeowner wildfire risk mitigation, community heterogeneity, and fire adaptedness - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Technical Report or White Paper
Patricia A. Champ, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, James R. Meldrum, Christopher M. Barth, Travis Warziniack
2017 Systems thinking and wildland fire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Christopher J. Dunn, David E. Calkin
2017 Uncertainty in natural hazards: modeling and decision support (Introduction)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karen L. Riley, Matthew P. Thompson, Peter Webley, Kevin D. Hyde
2017 Should I stay or should I go now? Or should I wait and see? Influences on wildfire evacuation decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Sarah M. McCaffrey, Robyn S. Wilson, Avishek Konar
2016 Risk terminology primer: basic principles and a glossary for the wildland fire management community
Technical Report or White Paper
Matthew P. Thompson, Tom Zimmerman, Dan Mindar, Mary A. Taber
2016 Risk management: core principles and practices, and their relevance to wildland fire
Technical Report or White Paper
Matthew P. Thompson, Donald G. MacGregor, David E. Calkin
2016 Wildfire risk as a socioecological pathology
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
A. Paige Fischer, Thomas A. Spies, Toddi A. Steelman, Cassandra Moseley, Bart R. Johnson, John D. Bailey, Alan A. Ager, Patrick S. Bourgeron, Susan Charnley, Brandon M. Collins, Jeffrey D. Kline, Jessica E. Leahy, Jeremy S. Littell, James D.A. Millington, Max W. Nielsen-Pincus, Christine Olsen, Travis B. Paveglio, Christopher I. Roos, David M. J. S. Bowman
2016 Getting ahead of the wildfire problem: quantifying and mapping management challenges and opportunities
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Christopher D. O'Connor, Matthew P. Thompson, Francisco Rodriguez y Silva
2016 Using risk analysis to reveal opportunities for the management of unplanned ignitions in wilderness
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Kevin M. Barnett, Carol Miller, Tyron J. Venn
2016 Risk perception, sense-making and resilient performance: the sounds of wildland firefighting in action - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Technical Report or White Paper
Anne E. Black, David Thomas, J. Ziegler, Elena Gabor, Rebekah L. Fox
2016 Achievable future conditions as a framework for guiding forest conservation and management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Stephen W. Golladay, Katherine L. Martin, James M. Vose, David N. Wear, Alan P. Covich, Richard J. Hobbs, Kier D. Klepzig, Gene E. Likens, Robert J. Naiman, Allan W. Shearer
2016 Resolving future fire management conflicts using multicriteria decision making
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Don A. Driscoll, Michael Bode, Ross A. Bradstock, David A. Keith, Trent D. Penman, Owen F. Price
2016 Is seeing believing? Perceptions of wildfire risk over time
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Patricia A. Champ, Hannah Brenkert-Smith
2016 Application of wildfire risk assessment results to wildfire response planning in the southern Sierra Nevada, California, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Phil Bowden, April Brough, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Alan H. Taylor, Jessica R. Haas
2016 Uncertainty is information, too
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Bruce G. Marcot, Matthew P. Thompson, Thomas W. Bonnot, Frank R. Thompson
2015 Development and application of a probabilistic method for wildfire suppression cost modeling
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Jessica R. Haas, Mark A. Finney, David E. Calkin, Michael S. Hand, Mark J. Browne, Martin Halek, Karen C. Short, Isaac C. Grenfell
2015 Risk preferences, probability weighting, and strategy tradeoffs in wildfire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Michael S. Hand, Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2015 Development and application of a geospatial wildfire exposure and risk calculation tool
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Jessica R. Haas, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Joe H. Scott, Paul G. Langowski, Elise M. Bowne, David E. Calkin
2015 Wildfires: systemic changes required
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Christopher J. Dunn, David E. Calkin
2015 A mixed integer program to model spatial wildfire behavior and suppression placement decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Erin J. Belval, Yu Wei, Michael Bevers
2015 Wildland fire management futures: Insights from a foresight panel - Final Report to the Joint Fire Science Program
Technical Report or White Paper
Robert L. Olson, David N. Bengston, Leif A. DeVaney, Trevor A.C. Thompson
2015 Catching fire? Social interactions, beliefs, and wildfire risk mitigation behaviors
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Patricia A. Champ, Katherine L. Dickinson, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Nicholas Flores
2015 Understanding gaps between the risk perceptions of wildland-urban interface (WUI) residents and wildfire professionals
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James R. Meldrum, Patricia A. Champ, Hannah Brenkert-Smith, Travis Warziniack, Christopher M. Barth, Lilia C. Falk
2015 Coupling the biophysical and social dimensions of wildfire risk to improve wildfire mitigation planning
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Jeffrey D. Kline, A. Paige Fischer
2015 Emerging concepts in wildfire risk assessment and management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joe H. Scott, Matthew P. Thompson
2014 Assessing the expected effects of wildfire on vegetation condition on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA
Technical Report or White Paper
Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Matthew P. Thompson
2014 Risk savvy: how to make good decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Gerd Gigerenzer
2014 Developing an aviation exposure index to inform risk-based fire management decisions
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Crystal S. Stonesifer, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson, Jeffrey D. Kaiden
2014 Wildfire risk transmission in the Colorado Front Range, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jessica R. Haas, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2014 Examining fire-prone landscapes as coupled human and natural systems
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Thomas A. Spies, Eric M. White, Jeffrey D. Kline, A. Paige Fischer, Alan A. Ager, John D. Bailey, John P. Bolte, Jennifer Koch, Emily K. Platt, Christine Olsen, Derric B. Jacobs, Bruce A. Shindler, Michelle M. Steen-Adams, Roger B. Hammer
2014 Predicting wildfire ignitions, escapes, and large fire activity using Predictive Service’s 7-Day Fire Potential Outlook in the western USA
Conference Proceedings
Karen L. Riley, Crystal S. Stonesifer, Haiganoush K. Preisler, David E. Calkin
2014 Post-epidemic fire risk and behavior
Conference Proceedings
Russell A. Parsons, William Matt Jolly, Paul G. Langowski, Megan Matonis, I. Sue Miller
2014 Social, institutional, and psychological factors wildfire incident decision making
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson
2014 Objective and perceived wildfire risk and its influence on private forest landowners fuel reduction activities in Oregon's (USA) ponderosa pine ecoregion
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
A. Paige Fischer, Jeffrey D. Kline, Alan A. Ager, Susan Charnley, Keith A. Olsen
2014 Understanding stochastic wildfire simulation results
Technical Report or White Paper
Joe H. Scott
2013 A polygon-based modeling approach to assess exposure of resources and assets to wildfire
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Jeffrey D. Kaiden, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2013 Simulating effects of land use policies on extent of the wildland urban interface and wildfire risk in Flathead County, Montana
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Travis B. Paveglio, Tony Prato, Michael Hardy
2013 A wildfire risk assessment framework for land and resource management
Technical Report or White Paper
Joe H. Scott, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
2013 Hazardous fuel treatments, suppression cost impacts, and risk mitigation
Conference Proceedings
Matthew P. Thompson, Michael S. Hand, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Nicole M. Vaillant, Derek J. Nalle
2013 Wildfire risk and optimal investments in watershed protection
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Travis Warziniack, Matthew P. Thompson
2013 A national approach for integrating wildfire simulation modeling into wildland urban interface risk assessments within the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jessica R. Haas, David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson
2013 Research and development supporting risk-based wildfire effects prediction for fuels and fire management: status and needs
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Kevin D. Hyde, Matthew B. Dickinson, Gil Bohrer, David E. Calkin, Louisa Evers, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Tessa Nicolet, Kevin C. Ryan, Christina Tague
2013 Decision making for wildfires: a guide for applying a risk management process at the incident level
Technical Report or White Paper
Mary A. Taber, Lisa M. Elenz, Paul G. Langowski
2013 Modeling wildfire incident complexity dynamics
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson
2013 Assessing watershed-wildfire risks on national forest system lands in the Rocky Mountain region of the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Paul G. Langowski, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Jessica R. Haas, Elise M. Bowne
2013 Integrated wildfire risk assessment: framework development and application on the Lewis and Clark National Forest in Montana, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, David E. Calkin
2013 Risk preferences in strategic wildfire decision making: a choice experiment with U.S. wildfire managers
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer, Michael S. Hand, David E. Calkin, Tyron J. Venn, Matthew P. Thompson
2013 Analyzing the transmission of wildfire exposure on a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Mark A. Finney, Ken W. Vance-Borland, Nicole M. Vaillant
2013 Wildfire exposure and fuel management on western US national forests
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Michelle A. Day, Charles W. McHugh, Karen C. Short, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Mark A. Finney, David E. Calkin
2013 How risk management can prevent future wildfire disasters in the wildland-urban interface
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, Jack D. Cohen, Mark A. Finney, Matthew P. Thompson
2012 Risk complexity and the wildland firefighter
Conference Proceedings
Ivan Pupulidy
2012 Quantifying the threat of unsuppressed wildfires reaching the adjacent wildland-urban interface on the Bridger-Teton National Forest, Wyoming, USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Sean A. Parks, Carol Miller
2012 Probabilistic assessment of wildfire hazard and municipal watershed exposure
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Joe H. Scott, Don Helmbrecht, Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Kate Marcille
2012 Wildland Fire Management Decision Making
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Tom Zimmerman
2012 Estimating US federal wildland fire managers' preferences toward competing strategic suppression objectives
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, Tyron J. Venn, Matthew J. Wibbenmeyer, Matthew P. Thompson
2012 The science and opportunity of wildfire risk assessment (Chapter 6)
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, Alan A. Ager, Mark A. Finney, David E. Calkin, Nicole M. Vaillant
2011 Advancing effects analysis for integrated, large-scale wildfire risk assessment
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day, Alan A. Ager
2011 A simulation of probabilistic wildfire risk components for the continental United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mark A. Finney, Charles W. McHugh, Isaac C. Grenfell, Karen L. Riley, Karen C. Short
2011 Uncertainty and risk in wildland fire management: a review
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Synthesis
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin
2011 Integrated national-scale assessment of wildfire risk to human and ecological values
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew P. Thompson, David E. Calkin, Mark A. Finney, Alan A. Ager, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2011 Analyzing wildfire exposure and source-sink relationships on a fire prone forest landscape
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Alan A. Ager, Nicole M. Vaillant, Mark A. Finney, Haiganoush K. Preisler
2011 Primer on risk analysis: decision making under uncertainty
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Charles Yoe
2011 Developing the U.S. Wildland Fire Decision Support System
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Erin Noonan-Wright, Tonja S. Opperman, Mark A. Finney, Tom Zimmerman, Robert C. Seli, Lisa M. Elenz, David E. Calkin, John R. Fiedler
2011 Managing wildfire events: risk-based decision making among a group of federal fire managers
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Robyn S. Wilson, Patricia L. Winter, Lynn A. Maguire, Timothy Ascher
2011 The Wildland Fire Decision Support System: Integrating science, technology, and fire management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Morgan Pence, Tom Zimmerman
2011 Progress towards and barriers to implementation of a risk framework for US federal wildland fire policy and decision making
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, Mark A. Finney, Alan A. Ager, Matthew P. Thompson, Krista M. Gebert
2011 The exposure index: developing firefighter safety performance measures
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, John Phipps, Thomas P. Holmes, Jon D. Rieck, Matthew P. Thompson
2011 A real-time risk assessment tool supporting wildland fire decisionmaking
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
David E. Calkin, Matthew P. Thompson, Mark A. Finney, Kevin D. Hyde
2010 Evaluating wildland fire danger and prioritizing vegetation and fuels treatments
Technical Report or White Paper
Paul F. Hessburg, Keith M. Reynolds, Robert E. Keane, Kevin M. James, R. Brion Salter
2010 Wildfire risk and hazard: procedures for the first approximation
Technical Report or White Paper
David E. Calkin, Alan A. Ager, Julie W. Gilbertson-Day
2009 Risk management - principles and guidelines
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Geneva Switzerland International organization for standardization
2009 The Key Decision Log: facilitating high reliability and organizational learning
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anne E. Black
2009 Science and decisions: advancing risk assessment
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
National Research Council
2009 A new process for organizing assessments of social, economic, and environmental outcomes: case study of wildland fire management in the USA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article, Management or Planning Document
Randall J. F. Bruins, Wayne R. Munns, Stephen J. Botti, Steve Brink, David Cleland, Larry Kapustka, Danny C. Lee, Valerie Luzadis, Laura Falk McCarthy, Naureen Rana, Douglas B. Rideout, Matthew G. Rollins, Peter Woodbury, Mike Zupko
2009 Mapping tradeoffs in values at risk at the interface between wilderness and non-wilderness lands
Conference Proceedings
Alan E. Watson, Roian Matt, Tim Waters, Kari Gunderson, Stephen J. Carver, Brett Davis
2008 Managing fire risk in the forests of the U.S. inland Northwest: a classic "wicked problem" in public land policy
Conference Proceedings, Synthesis, Technical Report or White Paper
Matthew S. Carroll, Keith A. Blatner, Patricia J. Cohn, Charles E. Keegan, Todd A. Morgan
2008 Managing fire risk in the forests of the U.S. inland Northwest: a classic "wicked problem" in public land policy
Conference Proceedings, Synthesis, Technical Report or White Paper
Matthew S. Carroll, Keith A. Blatner, Patricia J. Cohn, Charles E. Keegan, Todd A. Morgan
2007 Improving wildfire preparedness: lessons from communities across the US
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Pamela J. Jakes, Linda E. Kruger, Martha C. Monroe, Kristen C. Nelson, Victoria Sturtevant
2007 Citizen-Agency Interactions in Planning and Decisionmaking After Large Fires
Technical Report or White Paper
Christine Olsen, Bruce A. Shindler
2007 Managing the unexpected: resilient performance in an age of uncertainty
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karl E. Weick, Kathleen Sutcliffe
2005 Predicting risks of uncharacteristic wildfires: application of the risk assessment process
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Anne Fairbrother, Jessica G. Turnley
2005 The challenge of quantitative risk analysis for wildland fire
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mark A. Finney
2005 Wildland fire hazard and risk: problems, definitions and context
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Colin C. Hardy
2005 On becoming an artist: reinventing yourself through mindful creativity
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Ellen J. Langer
2005 Can behavioral decision theory explain risk-averse fire management decisions?
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Lynn A. Maguire, Elizabeth A. Albright
2005 Shared mindfulness in cockpit crisis situations
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Janice L. Krieger
2004 Probability based models for estimation of wildfire risk
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Haiganoush K. Preisler, David R. Brillinger, Robert E. Burgan, John W. Benoit
2004 Private and tribal forest landowners and fire risk: a two-county case study in Washington state
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Matthew S. Carroll, Patricia J. Cohn, Keith A. Blatner
2004 Surviving the age of risk: a call for ethical management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Lance J. Ewing, Ryan B. Lee
2004 A new accident model for engineering safer systems
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Nancy Leveson
2003 The spatial context of fire: a new approach for predicting fire occurrence
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Carol Miller
2003 The spatial context of fire: a new approach for predicting fire occurrence
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
Carol Miller
2003 A review of prescribed burning effectiveness in fire hazard reduction
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Paulo M. Fernandes, Herminio S. Botelho
2002 Inviting disaster: lessons from the edge of technology
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James R. Chiles
2002 Risk as analysis and risk as feelings: some thoughts about affect, reason, risk, and rationality
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Paul Slovic, Melissa Finucane, Ellen Peters, Donald G. MacGregor
2000 Preventing disaster: home ignitability in the wildland-urban interface
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Jack D. Cohen
2000 Sequential use of simulation and optimization in analysis and planning
Conference Proceedings
Hans R. Zuuring, Jimmie D. Chew, J. Greg Jones
2000 An overview of the fire and fuels extension to the forest vegetation simulator
Conference Proceedings
Sarah J. Beukema, Elizabeth D. Reinhardt, Werner A. Kurz, Nicholas L. Crookston
2000 Decisions: making the right ones. Learning from the wrong ones.
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Gary Klein, Karl E. Weick
2000 Lessons from Longford: the Esso Gas Plant explosion
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Andrew Hopkins
1999 Normal accidents: living with high-risk technologies
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Charles Perrow
1999 Applying simulation and optimization to plan fuel treatments at landscape scales
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
J. Greg Jones, Jimmie D. Chew, Hans R. Zuuring
1999 Risk management for ecological stewardship
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
D.A. Cleaves, R. W. Haynes
1999 Applying simulation and optimization to plan fuel treatments at landscape scales
Conference Proceedings, Technical Report or White Paper
J. Greg Jones, Jimmie D. Chew, Hans R. Zuuring
1999 Managing major hazards: the lessons of the Moura Mine disaster
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Andrew Hopkins
1997 Managing the risks of organizational accidents
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
James Reason
1997 Man-made disasters
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Barry A. Turner, Nick F. Pidgeon
1996 The Challenger launch decision: risky technology, culture, and deviance at NASA
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Diane Vaughan
1995 Beyond aviation human factors: safety in high technology systems
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Daniel E. Maurino, James Reason, Neil Johnston, Rob B. Lee
1995 Sensemaking in organizations
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Karl E. Weick
1994 Causes of disaster: sloppy management
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Barry Turner
1993 Organizational communication imperatives: lessons of the space program
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Phillip K. Tompkins
1993 The textual approach: risk and blame in disaster sensemaking
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Robert P. Gephart Jr.
1990 Military misfortunes: the anatomy of failure in war
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Eliot A. Cohen, John Gooch
1990 Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
M. Granger Morgan, Max Henrion
1990 Overcoming organizational defenses: facilitating organizational learning
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Chris Argyris
1990 Conservatism, efficiency, and the value of life
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Douglas MacLean, Claudia Mills
1990 The history and politics of disaster management in the United States
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Roy S. Popkin
1989 Decision traps: the ten barriers to brilliant decision-making and how to overcome them
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
J. Edward Russo, Paul J. H. Schoemaker
1988 Economic efficiency and risk character of fire management programs, northern Rocky Mountains
Technical Report or White Paper
Thomas J. Mills, Frederick W. Bratten
1987 Searching for safety
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Aaron Wildavsky
1986 Judgment under uncertainty: heuristics and biases
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
1982 Risk and culture: an essay on the selection of technological and environmental dangers
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Mary Douglas, Aaron Wildavsky
1981 Threat rigidity effects in organizational behavior: a multilevel analysis
Book or Chapter or Journal Article
Barry Staw, Lance Sandelands, Jane Dutton
Proceedings of the fourth fire behavior and fuels conference
Conference Proceedings
Dale D. Wade, Rebekah L. Fox