Cataloging Information
Decisionmaking & Sensemaking
Risk
There needs to be a deeper, systems-level understanding of the fire management system. The behavior of fire managers is a direct and logical result of the structure of the system in which they operate, influenced by factors such as incentives, culture, and capacity. If managers are judged by fire exclusion, that will become the dominant paradigm. Managers within this system may operate at cross-purposes, as shown by the widely divergent fire management policies and objectives across jurisdictional boundaries (1, 2). The joint influences of complexity, conflict, and uncertainty lead to a riskaverse decision structure constrained by perceptions and pressures, and susceptible to suboptimal decision biases and solutions to problems. The emphasis on aggressive suppression over less tangible ecological benefits and hazard mitigation disconnects fire management objectives from underlying resource management objectives.